南疆地区农业结构变动对农业经济增长的影响

摘要

By analyzing the impacts of agricultural structure and its changes on agricultural economic growth in southern Xinjiang from 2000 to 2011 , this paper expained the agricultural structure and its changes in southern Xinjiang region, estimated the contribution rate of the industrial structure of agriculture and its changes on the agri-cultural economy, as well as the impact of output growth in each agricultural sector on agricultural economic growth. The results showed that the changes in the external structure of agriculture in southern Xinjiang region had significant growth characteristics, while the changes in the internal structure of agriculture had slow speed with the ambiguous direction. The farming industry had the greatest impact on the total agricultural output growth in southern Xinjiang region, followed by animal husbandry, fishing industry and at last, forestry. The current industrial struc-ture of agriculture had a negative effect on agricultural economic growth in southern Xinjiang region. The economic benefits brought by the adjustment of the agriculture needed to be further developed, and the industrial structure of agriculture needed to be further optimized.%通过分析2000~2011年南疆地区农业结构及其变动对农业经济增长的影响，解析了南疆地区农业结构及其变动情况，测算出农业产业结构及其变动对农业经济的贡献率和农业各部门产值增长对农业经济增长的影响弹性。结果表明，南疆地区农业外部结构变动具有明显的成长特征；而农业内部结构变动速度慢，调整方向不明，其中种植业的增长对南疆地区农业总产出增长的拉动能力最大，其次为牧业，渔业与林业对农业经济的影响较小；目前南疆地区农业产业结构已对农业经济增长产生负面效应，农业产业结构所蕴含的能量仍有待进一步释放，农业产业结构变动所带来的经济效益有待进一步开发，农业产业结构亟待进一步调整优化。