基于ELES模型的苏北农村居民消费结构分析

摘要

Aiming at the unbalanced economy development of rural regions of Jiangsu province, and based on the analysis of the data of rural residents from Jiangsu Statistical Yearbook (2006 ~ 2012), this paper firstly compared the income, expenditure, and the consumption structure of the residents from the south part, the mid-part and the north part of Jiangsu province.It showed that the rural economy development in the north part of Jiangsu province was relatively backward and the consumption structure needed to be upgraded.Then, on the basis of economic data and the accounting of the consumption expenditure ratio of rural residents from the north part of Jiangsu province, it showed that the food consuming ratio decreased year by year, whereas the expenditure ratio of education and entertainment, and the household gradually increased year by year.It indicated the consumption level in the north part of Jiangsu province was improved greatly in recent years.Finally, based on ELES model, the features of the consumption structure of rural residents in the north part of Jiangsu province was studied empirically in the essay.The marginal propensity showed that the consumption on education, entertainments, food, housing, transportation, and communication were greater in the north part of Jiangsu province.The analysis of income elasticity demonstrated that the consumption on education and entertainments, household appliances, and health care were luxury, while other aspects of life consumption were necessary.In order to rationally promote the consumption structure of rural residents in the north part of Jiangsu province, and promote more sustainable and healthy economy development in the north part of Jiangsu province, it put forward some suggestions, such as raising farmers′ income, promoting the quality of life, increasing investment on fundamental education, improving infrastructure construction, and perfecting the rural cooperative medical insurance system, and so on.%[目的]基于江苏农村区域经济发展的不平衡.[方法与结果]通过对江苏统计年鉴(2006~2012)农村居民数据处理,首先采用对比分析法,从收入、支出和消费结构3个方面对江苏苏南、苏中、苏北三大区域进行对比,结果显示苏北农村发展相对落后,消费结构有待升级.然后,结合苏北农村居民2008~2012年的经济数据,通过消费支出比率核算,得出食品的支出比率基本呈现逐年递减趋势,文教娱乐、家庭设备支出比例基本呈现逐年递增趋势,表明近年来苏北农村居民消费层次有了很大的提升.最后,采用ELES模型,对苏北农村居民的消费结构特征进行了实证研究.边际消费倾向分析表明,文教娱乐、食品、居住以及交通通讯是苏北农村居民主要消费重点.需求收入弹性分析表明,文教娱乐、家庭设备以及医疗保健为奢侈品,其他为生活必需品.[结论]为促进苏北农村居民消费结构进一步趋于合理,促进苏北经济持续健康发展,从提高农民收入、提升生活品质、加大基础教育投入、改善基础设施并做好农村合作医疗保险等方面给出对策建议.