Objective: The article demonstrated the ability of careful selection of essential medicines on saving total pharmaceutical expenditures, to achieve the goal of United Nations for more than 95% coverage of population with access to affordable, essential medicines by 2015. Method: The research originally modeled a mathematical function, depending on variables of population, expen ditures on medicines, and the lists of essential medicines. Result: The model was successfully tested by three different lists, the outcome diagrams significantly illustrated that the World Health Organization Model list exhibited the most cost, and that China's 2009 list indicated the least cost, with average saving of 14 000 million RMB per year than China's 2004 List. Conclusion: The paper drew an amazing finding that lessened selection of essential medicines could widen the population coverage of them, but with great decreasing in total expenditures on medicines, which manifested the economical nature of essential medicine policy.%目的:到2015年使95％的人口获得支付得起的基本药物是联合国千年发展目标之一,但是基本药物的遴选和人口覆盖目标之间的联系并没有建立.方法:原创性地建立了以人口、药费和药物目录等为变元的数学模型.结果:将世界卫生组织、我国2004和2009年的基本药物目录数据代入模型,测算结果表明,我国2004年目录药费总开支最大,而2009年目录药费总开支最小,年均可比2004年目录药费节约1 400亿元.结论:削减基本药物却反而可扩大其人口覆盖率,并使药费支出总额减少,这恰是基本药物政策的精髓所在.
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