A New Paradigm for Simulating and Forecasting China's Economic Growth in the Medium and Long Term

摘要

Taking the system philosophy of human-earth relationship as the theoretical axis,and under the three-dimensional goals of economic growth,social development,and protection of the ecological environment,this paper constructs the supporting system of China’s economic development.On this basis,guided by the basic principles of system theory and system dynamics,and combined with the theories of other related disciplines,we constructed an economic geography-system dynamics(EG-SD)integrated forecasting model to simulate and quantitatively forecast China’s economic growth in the medium and long term.China’s economic growth will be affected by quantifiable and unquantifiable factors.If the main unquantifiable factors are not taken into account in the simulation and prediction of China’s economic growth in the medium and long term,the accuracy and objectivity of the prediction results will be diminished.Therefore,based on situation analysis(Strengths,Weaknesses,Opportunities,and Threats,SWOT),we combined scenario analysis with the Delphi method,and established a qualitative prediction simulation model(referred to as the S-D compound prediction model)to make up for the shortcomings associated with quantitative simulation predictions.EG-SD and S-D are organically combined to construct a simulation and prediction paradigm of China’s economic growth in the medium and long term.This paradigm not only realizes the integration of various forecasting methods and the combination of qualitative and quantitative measures,but also realizes the organic combination of unquantifiable and quantifiable elements by innovatively introducing fuzzy simulation of system dynamics,which renders the simulation and prediction results more objective and accurate.