本文将承接产业作为一个独立的产业部门纳入承接地产业间投入产出体系，确定承接产业与本土产业间的投入产出关系，进而推导整体迁移模式下，承接产业与本土间融合互动关系式，并运用情景分析方法，模拟承接各产业后河北省本土产业以及所承接产业在不同时间的规模扩张情况。结果显示：短期内，承接不同产业会给河北省产业结构带来不同的变化，但是各产业规模变动不会因情景设定的不同而不同。综合来看，受产业转移影响河北省制造业规模扩张最大，水利、环境和公共设施管理业等居民服务业规模扩张较小；中期来看，通过选择不同承接产业调整河北产业结构的作用减弱，但同一承接产业的产业结构调整作用增强，且各产业产出规模变动在不同情景下存在差异；长期来看，产业转移技术溢出效应的发挥有利于河北省通过承接产业转移促进产业结构升级。较基准情景而言，当前的投资消费政策虽然能够促进承接产业转移的产业扩张作用的有效发挥，但是其促进河北省第三产业发展的作用更为微弱。%In this paper, it takes the undertake industry as an independent industry, and incorporate it into inter⁃industry input⁃output system to determine the basic input⁃output relationships between the accepting industry and local industries. Used of scenario analysis, it simulates the industrial expansion situation of 19 industrial sectors in Hebei as well as the undertake industry at different times�The results show that:in the short term, the industrial structure of Hebei changes with different undertake industries, but the changing size of each industry does not vary with changes of scene setting�On the whole, affected industrial transfer, manufacturing has the largest expansion of the scale, while the water conservancy, environment and public facilities management industry and other resident service sector has a smaller scale�In the medium term, the effect of undertaking different industries to adjust the industrial structure is weakened with cumulative time, but effect of undertaking the same industry to adjust industrial structures is enhanced, and there are differences in output change of various industries under different scenarios�In the long term, industrial transfer technology spillover effect is conducive to promoting industrial structure upgrading by undertaking industrial transfer�Compared with the baseline scenario , the current policy of investment and consumption can effectively promote the role of industrial expansion of Hebei played by undertaking industry, but the role of it to the tertiary industry development is weaker.
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