基于CGE的政治争端事件对中国经济的影响研究——以中日2012年'钓鱼岛事件'为例

摘要

With the further development of global economic integration,bilateral trading between countries has become increasingly frequent,causing more trade frictions. Taking the conflict of Diaoyu Islands between China and Japan in 2012 for example, this paper, through the Computable General Equilibrium model, quantitatively evaluates the economic losses of China caused by the dispute from the perspective of international trade. Results show that the Diaoyu Islands Dispute has exerted a chain of negative effects on Chinese economy, including total domestic output, investment,savings,and income. China suffered a loss of 638 billion RMB,about 0.5% of total output in 2012,due to the dispute. The CGE model adopted in this paper provides references for the loss assessment in trade conflicts. The empirical findings obtained in this research will assist the governments in formulating better foreign policies.%随着经济全球一体化的深入发展,国家间的经贸联系越来越紧密,扰动性事件对经贸活动的影响也在不断加大.本文以2012年中日"钓鱼岛事件"为例,应用可计算一般均衡模型(CGE)评估该事件给中国经济造成的影响.研究结果表明,"钓鱼岛事件"对中国经济系统产生了连锁的负面效应,国内总产出、投资、储蓄、收入等宏观经济变量在不同程度上有所减少.如总产出的损失值约为6380.7405亿元,约占2012年总产值的0.5%.本研究可以与其他研究结果进行对比,以便更全面地评估类似事件带来的经济损失.同时,所得研究结果也可为政府有关部门评估政治争端的影响和制定国际贸易政策,以及企事业单位规划外贸战略时提供实证参考.