中国经济长期向好的基本面虽未改变,但2010年以来经济增速不断回落,一些阻碍经济可持续发展的不利因素不断积累,落入“中等收入陷阱”的风险有所上升.揭示中等收入陷阱的产生机制,显然对于政府形成规避中等收入陷阱的有效政策具有重要意义.本文根据社会再生产理论,建立了“世代交叠”模型,对中等收入陷阱的产生机制作出理论解释,并运用中国1998--2014年各地区经济数据进行了验证,结果表明:①人力资本积累和企业创新会在不同程度上促进经济增长,并且二者存在协同效应;②上中等层次人力资本积累与企业创新的协同效应可以带动经济增长;③下中等层次人力资本与企业创新的协同效应对经济增长的作用不显著.这意味着现阶段中国经济发展不仅应注重人力资本量的积累,更要保证质的提升.基于此,应从下三个方面着手推动中国经济实现中高速增长:①着力提升科技创新能力,科学构建产权保护法律体系,促进形成企业家倡导企业科研创新的机制,激发企业创新的主观能动性,维护创新企业对于运用和转让科研成果的合法权益;②着力培育高素质人才的教育体系,稳步提升高等教育入学率和办学质量,鼓励教育培训机构适度创新,推动培训方式项目化,针对岗位需求扩充劳动者知识和技术储备;③着力降低初中及以下人口的规模与比例,延长义务教育年限,鼓励优质教育资源向不发达地区适度转移,关注偏远地区贫困人群的入学情况,努力为穷人提供公平发展的机会.%China's long-term economic fundamental to be better has not changed,but the economic growth continues to drop since 2010.Some negative factors accumulate and hinder the process of economy sustainable development.The risks of falling into the 'middle income trap'increase.Revealing the mechanisn of the middle-income trap is important for the formation of an effective government policies which can avoid the niddle-income trapobviously.According to the idea of social reproduction,we establish the 'overlapping generations' model to explain the mechanism of the middle-income trap,by using China's regional economic data in 1998-2014.The results showthat:①Human capital accumulation and innovation will promote economic growth in varying degrees,and there are synergistic effects between the two factors.②The synergistic effect between higher level of human capital accumulation and innovation can drive economic growth.③The synergistic effect between lower level of human capital accumulation and innovation on economic growth is not significant.This means that China's economic development should not only focus on the amount of human capital accumulation,but also ensure a qualitative improvement at the present.Based on this,China should achieve medium-high economic growth from following aspects.①Improve the ability of scientific and technological innovation,construct the legal system of property rights protection scientifically,promote the formation of enterprise research and innovation mechanism which promoted by entrepreneurs,stimulatethe enterprise innovation initiative,and safeguard the legitimate rights of enterprises to use and transfer research results.②Cultivate the educational system of high quality talents,improve the enrollment rate and the quality of higher education steadily,encourage the education and training institutions to moderate innovation,promote the projected training method,and expand laborers' knowledge and technical reserves for job needs.③Reduce the size and proportion of the population which at the stage of compulsory education,extend the duration of compulsory education,encourage the transfer of quality education resources to underdeveloped areas,focus on the enrollment of the poor in remote areas,and provide equitable development opportunities for the poor.
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