交通部门是快速增长的能源消费和CO2排放部门,其CO2排放峰值出现的年份和峰值排放水平已成为影响我国能否实现2030年国家自主决定贡献目标的要素之一.本文将交通部门的CO2排放进行KAYA公式展开并动态化,推导出交通部门CO2排放峰俊、能源消费量峰值和交通服务周转量峰值出现时的必要条件,以及三个峰值出现顺序的一般规律,即:交通部门CO2排放量的峰值将最早出现,该峰值出现时交通部门能源消费的碳强度年下降率将大予交通能源消费的年增长率;交通能源消费量峰值将随后出现,届时交通服务量的能源强度年下降率将大于交通服务量的年增长率;交通部门服务量达峰将最后出现,此时单位GDP的交通服务强度的年下降率将大于GDP的年增长率,并最终实现与GDP增长脱钩.在结合我国经济发展新常态的背景下,对我国交通部门的CO2排放、能源消费和服务量达峰进行情景分析,研究结果表明:只有综合采取燃油税和碳税等财税政策以及进一步加速燃料替代、提升交通工具能效等措施,我国交通部门才有可能在2035年左右实现CO2排放达峰,峰值时的CO2排放量约为12.3亿t,在2045年左右实现交通能源消费量达峰,峰值水平约为7.4亿t标准煤,在2050年前交通服务周转量很难出现峰值但其增速将十分缓慢.与美国、日本和欧盟交通部门峰值出现年份的发展阶段相比较,我国交通部门在自身快速发展的同时向绿色低碳转型的发展阶段特征十分明显,三个峰值陆续出现的特点更加显著.为此,我国交通部门要全面加强顶层设计,构建综合的交通政策体系,以发展低碳交通技术为重要抓手,充分利用好市场机制的减排手段,全面提升公众的低碳出行意识,进而加速我国交通部门CO2排放峰值的早日到来.%Transportation sector is both a fast-growing energy consumption department and an CO2 emissions department.Its CO2 emissions peaking time and level has been a key factor affecting Chinese achievement of National Determined Contributions around 2030.The dynamic Kaya analysis of CO2 emissions in transportation sector has been applied,and has deduced the necessary conditions for CO2 emissions,energy consumption and transportation volume to peak,as well as the general rule of the time order of these peaking.The result shows that CO2 emissions peaks firstly appear when the annual decrease rate of CO2 emissions per energy consumption surpasses the annual increase rate of energy consumption.Energy consumption peaks secondly appear when the annual decrease rate of energy intensity of transport volume exceeds the annual increase rate of transport volume.Transport volume peak appears at last when the annual decrease rate of transport volume per GDP overtakes the annual increase rate of GDP,which also means the development of transportation sector is decoupled from GDP growth.Considering the new normal of Chinese economy,scenario analysis is adopted to estimate the peaking of CO2 emissions,energy consumption and transport volume.The result shows that only by adopting collaborative measures including fiscal policies of fuel oil tax and carbon tax as well as fuel replacement and transport energy efficiency promotion,CO2 emissions peak in transportation sector will be realized around 2035 with about 1.23 billion tons of CO2 emission,and energy consumption peak can be realized around 2045 with the amount of 740 million tons of coal equivalent.Though transportation volume peak may not be achieved before 2050,the increase rate could be quite slow.Compared with the development of transportation sector in the USA,Japan and EU when their CO2 emissions reach the peak,China' s transportation sector has an obvious features that fast development accompanies with green and low-carbon transition,and the above three peaks appear step by step observably.Therefore,the top-level design in China' s transportation sector should be fully strengthened,and the comprehensive transport policies system should be established.Taking low-carbon transport technologies as an important starting point,the peaking of CO2 emissions in China' s transportation sector can be accelerated through making full use of market mechanism of emission reduction and fully enhancing the public awareness of low carbon travel.
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