基于对数平均权重分解法的我国二氧化碳排放因素分解研究

摘要

二氧化碳是最主要的温室气体，控制二氧化碳排放对于实现我国碳强度目标具有重要意义。本文以1997～2010年的相关统计数据为基础，基于对数平均权重分解法（LMDI）构建了二氧化碳排放的指数分解模型，并采用该模型将我国当前的二氧化碳排放总量分解为11种不同的影响因素。然后通过分析和计算得出了各省的经济产出、人均GDP和城镇化水平等正向影响因素对二氧化碳排放的增长起到促进作用，而各部门的能源消费强度、农村人口比重、各省部门结构比重等负向影响因素对二氧化碳排放的增长起到抑制作用。最后根据对模型的分析指出了我国二氧化碳减排的发展方向，以期为二氧化碳减排的实践提供有益借鉴。%Controlling carbon dioxide emissions play an important role in realizing the target of China's carbon intensity as carbon dioxide is thought to be the main greenhouse gas .Firstly ,this paper construct the index decomposition model of carbon dioxide and decompose China's current total of carbon dioxide emissions into 11 factors based on the relevant statistical data of 1997‐2010 and LMDI;Then ,obtain that positive factors such as the economic output ,per capita GDP and the level of urbanization play a catalytic role in the growth of carbon dioxide emissions ,conversely negative factors such as energy consumption intensity of various departments ,the proportion of the rural population and the proportion of the provincial department structure play an inhibitory effect in the grow th of carbon dioxide emissions by analysis and calculation ;Further ,indicate the development direction of China's carbon dioxide emissions in order to provide the beneficial reference for the practice of carbon dioxide emission reduction based on the analysis of the model .