基于Monte Carlo法的滑坡稳定性可靠度分析研究

摘要

对滑坡进行勘查时,常用极限平衡法进行稳定性计算.该方法将滑坡的各影响因素均考虑为定值进行计算,由于岩土体变异系数较大,其计算结果有一定的局限性.若结合Monte Carlo法对滑坡进行稳定性分析,可以考虑到滑坡影响因素在一定范围内的随机性,能更直观准确的表明滑坡的稳定性情况.利用传递系数法和MonteCarlo法相结合对太阳河滑坡进行稳定性分析,可为一般滑坡的稳定性评价提供参考.%When the landslide is surveyed,the stability calculation is carried out by the limit equilibrium method.We take the influencing factors of landslide as the definite value.Because of the large coefficient of variation of rock and soil,the calculation result has some limitations.According to the Monte Carlo method,the stability analysis of the landslide can take into account the randomness of the landslide influencing factors in a certain range.It shows the stability of the landslide more intuitively and accurately.In this paper,the stability analysis of the Sun River landslide is carried out by using the transfer coefficient method and the Monte Carlo method,which can provide a reference for the stability evaluation of the general landslide.