京津冀与长三角城市群碳排放的空间聚集效应比较

摘要

Based on China High Resolution Emission Gridded Data (CHRED), the spatial pattern and agglomeration characteristics of carbon dioxide emissions in Beijing-Tianjin-Heibei region and Yangtze River Delta region are analysed by means of exploratory spatial data analysis techniques (ESDA) and spatial regression model. By mean of significant test, we explore the spatial lag regression (SLM) and spatial error regression (SEM) method to reveal the influence factors of carbon emissions in urban agglomeration. The carbon emission in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region proves to be more in spatial randomness and structural instability with index of Moran's I value -0.131. However, the spatial agglomeration effects in the Yangtze River Delta region are obvious with index of Moran's I value 0.106 that neighbour regions pose great effect on carbon emissions. Population and economic factors are the main influence factors of carbon emissions in above mention two urban agglomerations. In general, the diffusion effect of carbon emissions in the Yangtze River Delta region proves to be more apparently. However the agglomeration effect of carbon emissions in Beijing-Tianjin-Heibei region is still obvious. Turning to multicentre of regional development is one of the important measure to solve the metropolitan malaise. And metropolitan region should strengthen the object control of divergent effect of carbon emissions, promote the integration of low-carbon development, and achieve regional carbon emissions balance.%基于中国高空间分辨率碳排放网格数据(CHRED),采用探索性空间分析手段(ESDA)和空间回归模型分析京津冀和长三角城市群碳排放指标空间格局和聚集特点,通过显著性检验选择空间滞后回归(SLM)和空间误差回归(SEM)方法,揭示城市群碳排放水平的影响因素.结果表明,京津冀城市群碳排放在空间上表现出更多的随机性和结构不稳定性,Moran 自相关系数为-0.131;长三角城市群碳排放在空间上表现聚集趋势明显,Moran自相关系数0.106,二氧化碳排放受到临近区域的影响.人口和经济因素是京津冀城市群和长三角城市群碳排放的最主要驱动因素.总体上长三角地区碳排放总体扩散效应显著,而京津冀城市群极化效应更明显.区域发展的多中心化是大城市病治理的重要导向,同时要注意对区域碳排放溢出热点进行控制,促进城市群一体化和低碳化发展,实现区域碳平衡.