基于环境CGE模型,通过对生产环节排放的SO2和NOx同时征收环境税,将行业SO2和NO,的减排量分解为产出规模效应、过程排放效应、中间投入替代效应、能源替代效应(排放基数效应和排放强度效应)和国产进口替代效应,模拟分析我国SO2和NOx行业排放量变化的原因.结果显示,SO2和NOx的排放量分别减少29万t和13万t,因行业中间使用煤炭减少的SO2和NOx排放量分别为57％和99％.从行业分解效应来看,SO2和NOx的排放量下降均主要得益于能源替代效应,减排量分别为27万t和12万t,其次是产出规模效应,减排量分别为2万t和8579t.其中,电力行业的减排量最大,能源替代效应完全占主导作用.然而,不同行业的SO2和NOx排放变化的主要影响因素存在很大差异.因此,政府在征收环境税时,应着重考虑行业SO2和NOx减排的差异性.%Based on environmental CGE model,the SO2 and NOx emissions reduction of sectors were decomposed into output scale effect,process emission effect,intermediate input substitution effect,energy substitution effect (emissions intensity effect and emissions base effect),and import substitution effect.It was showed by analytical results that SO2 and NOx emissions were decreased by 290 000 tons and 130 000 tons,respectively,in which,the reduction of coal use as intermediate inputs accounted for 57％ and 99％,respectively.Besides,it was showed by our decomposition analysis that energy substitution effects made the strongest contribution,SO2 and NOx emissions were reduced by 270 000 tons and 120 000 tons,respectively.This was followed by output scale effects,contributing 20 000 tons and 8579 tons of emissions cut,respectively.On the sector level,the largest emissions reduction was contributed by the electric power sector,to which energy substitution effects made the greatest contribution.The main factors for SO2 and NOx emissions reduction varied significantly across sectors.Therefore,when levying environmental tax,sectors' idiosyncrasies in reducing SO2 and NOx emissions should be considered by the government.
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