浦东新区高血压就诊人数预测模型的研究

摘要

目的：建立预测浦东新区高血压就诊人数的预测模型。方法：采用季节预测方法中的移动平均比率法计算趋势值与季节指数，用移动平均比率法配合最小二乘法建立预测模型。结果：根据浦东新区2011-2014年高血压就诊数据预测2015年1-6月各月就诊人数。结论：移动平均比率法适合预测高血压就诊人数，可以为家庭医生对签约居民进行高血压的管理提供依据。%Objective: Establish the mathematics model to predict the number of the patients with hypertension treated in Pudong New Area. Methods:Using the moving average rate method of the seasonal prediction model to calculate the trend and the seasonal index, the prediction model is established by using the moving average method and the least square method. Results: Predict the number of patients treated in Pudong New Area from January to June in 2015 according to the annual data from 2011 to 2014. Conclusion:The moving average rate method is suitable for predicting the number of patients with hypertension. It can provide the basis for general practitioners to manage the contracted patients with hypertension.