基于统计数据的安徽省粮食直补机制建设效果评价研究∗

摘要

Based on the statistical data for grain producing from 1999 to 2012 in Anhui province, the effect of grain direct subsidy policies on the grain production is carefully evaluated in this paper. The results show that the implementation of the grain direct subsidy policies has improved the farmers' enthusiasm of planting grain and the planting area and total yield of grain have been increased. In the early days of the implementation of the grain direct subsidy policies, for example from 2004 to 2006, the positive effect was obvious. After 2007, the incentive effect has reduced and the main effect of the policies is keeping grain production stable. The policies have different impac-tion on different kinds of grain, for example, rice and wheat.%该文选用安徽省1999－2012年连续14年的统计数据,分析粮食直补政策实施多年来对粮食生产的影响,对政策的绩效进行深入评价。研究表明：粮食直补政策的实施,调动了农民种粮的积极性,促进了粮食种植面积和产量的增长；在政策实施初期(2004－2006年),促进作用非常明显,2007年之后,激励作用减弱,政策主要起到稳定生产的作用；直补政策对稻谷、小麦两种补贴主粮品种的作用机制并不完全一致,对不同的粮食品种,激励效果并不相同。