我国煤炭价格波动周期特征分析及预测研究

摘要

The authors took X12 seasonal adjustment models and HP filtering method to an-alyze fluctuation periods of China coal price from January 2003 to August 2015,such as changes of secular trend,cycles,seasonality,irregular factors and other factors. The results showed that secular trend caused the greatest influence on coal price,and then cycles,seasonality and irregu-lar factors,furthermore,with time went by,seasonality and irregular factors rapidly weaken. According to fluctuation patterns,the current cycle would be over after 2 ~4 months and get to the next cycle. In all,the authors predicted coal price to stay under pressure and maintain low narrow fluctuation in the fourth quarter.%本文采用 X12季节调整法和 HP 滤波法，对2003年1月至2015年8月我国煤炭价格波动特性进行了分析，研究其长期趋势、周期循环、季节性和不规则等因素的变化情况。结果表明，长期趋势对煤炭价格的影响程度最大，周期循环、季节性和不规则因素影响次之，并且随着时间的推移，季节性和不规则因素快速减弱。从波动规律看，未来2~4个月当前周期可能结束，进入下一个波动周期。综合分析，预计四季度煤价继续承压、维持低位窄幅波动。