为了分析评估猪重大疫病发生风险,为防控决策提供基础依据.依据评价指标选取原则,通过调查分析、资料检索和专家论证,筛选确定风险指标;利用层次分析法确定设置风险指标权重;依照各项指标的关联性,根据概率论运算法则和数理统计加权综合法,建立评估模型;依据综合评估原理和运算法则,运用计算机技术建立综合估算系统.通过研究,建立了由评估指标结构框架、指标权重系数、指标量化评价标准、评估数学模型、综合估算系统和风险等级标准组成的,适合柳州当地实际的区域性、内源性猪重大疫病风险评估体系.应用表明,建立的猪重大疫病风险评估体系可从时间、空间、水平三方面评估风险,应用于基层防控有现实指导意义.%Analyzing the risk of great epidemic disease of pigs to provide functions reference for prevention and control measures. Screen and define the risk index according to the selecting principle of appraisal criteria, which through by investigation, data search and expert testification. Use the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) to define the evaluation index weight. Evaluation model was set up based on the operation principle of probability theory and the method of weighed synthesis in mathematical statistics. To set up system for evaluating the great epidemic disease risks of pigs, which including evaluation index system, appraisal standards of index quantifying, index weight, mathematical evaluation model, the classification standard for risks. The system of risk evaluation can be used actually. It can be a suitable and effective method of prevention and control measures in the practical applications.
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