Estimating the Effects of the COVID-19 Outbreak on the Decreasing Number of Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndrome Cases and Epidemiological Trends in China

摘要

Since the first case of acquired immune deficiency syndrome(AIDS)was detected in the United States in 1981,this disease has spread to every corner of the world.Despite the annual incidence of AIDS showing a slight decline since 1997,it remains a major cause of infectious disease-related death worldwide.Unlike global epidemiological trends,the number of notified AIDS cases has increased in recent years in China[1].Moreover,among the class B notifiable infectious diseases,AIDS was responsible for the highest mortality rate from 2008 to 2019,still failing to be identified as a vaccine-preventable disease[1].Thus,to provide more unambiguous and quantitative direction for the effective formulation of preventive planning strategies and for the reasonable allocation of limited resources,a forecasting model with high precision and accuracy to understand the future epidemic behaviors of AIDS is required.During the model-building process,accurate statistics are vital to ensure the forecasting accuracy of the model.