基于Holt指数平滑模型的油井产量动态预测

摘要

产量动态预测是油井生产动态的实时监测与调控的重要基础.该文利用时间序列分析中的Holt指数平滑模型,依据误差平方和最小原则对初始值和平滑参数α、β进行优化,考虑了所有已有时间序列的历史数据对预测值的影响,建立了一种新型的油井产量预测Holt指数平滑模型.实例计算表明,模型预测误差基本控制在10％以内.该模型具有良好的适用性和准确性,可作为油井生产计划的实时调整和辅助决策依据.%Production dynamic prediction is the basis of real-time monitor and control of oil well production performance.This paper makes a production dynamic prediction using the time series analysis of Holt exponential smoothing model considering the history of all existing time series data.The method optimizes the initial values and two smoothing parameters based on the principle of minimum error sum of squares.The results show that error of the mentioned method is within 10％,so it is of good practicability and accuracy.The prediction results can be used as the basis for well adjust and control.