Mathematical Forecasting of the Tourism Activity Importance in Chinese Economy based on Holt's Exponential Smoothing Model

摘要

As economy grows, the tourism shares a more and more important part in the development. This paper aims to forecast the importance of the tourism activities in Chinese economy. We got the initial values of forecast by linear regression based on the data on percentage of tourism industry in terms of employment from 1988 to 2015, and used Holt's exponential smoothing model to get the optimal RMSE. Finally, we get the predicted values from 2016 to 2018 with minimized RMSE.