提出了基于广义帕累托分布(GPD)和Copula函数的冰风暴灾害下电力断线倒塔的概率计算方法.该方法基于冰风暴灾害下风速和冻雨量的GPD,提出了电力线和铁塔的冰荷载和风荷载的概率计算模型;然后考虑冰荷载与风荷载之间存在的概率相关性,基于Copula函数,提出了电力线和铁塔冰荷载、风荷载的联合概率分布计算模型;在此基础上,实现了冰风暴灾害下电力断线倒塔的概率计算.结合湖南郴州电网220 kV输电线路的历史数据,计算出该电网断线倒塔的概率,并通过与实际数据的分析比较,表明该计算模型精确、有效.%A probability calculation method of broken lines and collapsed towers under ice storms based on generalized Pareto distributions (GPD) and Copula function is presented. Based on GPD of meteorological variables, such as wind speed and freezing precipitation, the probability calculation model of ice loads and wind loads on transmission lines and towers are proposed. Then a joint probability distribution model for ice and wind loads of power line and tower is put forward, in considering the dependence of ice loads and wind loads and based on Copula function. Furthermore, a probability calculation of broken lines and collapsed towers under ice storms is completed for historical data of 220 kV transmission system in Chenzhou power grid, Hunan. Comparing the calculation results with practice, it shows that the accuracy and validity of this model are quite perfect.
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