基于威布尔过程的核电厂设备寿期管理决策

摘要

Equipment life cycle management, including mean replacement time and life reliability, was determined based on distribution fitting of historical life data for most nuclear power plants. This method is used widely but it ignores the influence on facilities life of the repair and operating time. To solve this problem, based on the specialties of components in nuclear power plant, a new approach of data processing and life deciding was proposed with empirical method and failure rate indicator combined by Weibull process. The calculation of actual example proves that this new approach overcomes defects such as waste of information and risk of assumption error.%核电厂目前多通过对历史更换数据统计拟合获得设备寿命分布,以确定设备的平均寿命和可靠寿命,而忽视了故障维修和累积运行时间对设备寿命的影响.为解决该问题,根据核电厂设备现场运行特点,对威布尔过程的拟合方法及在现场数据处理中的应用进行分析,提出了基于威布尔过程将专家经验寿命处理为失效率指标的寿期决策方法,克服了原方法对现场数据包含信息使用不完全的缺点,并进行了实例计算.