将变权理论引入土地生态安全预警研究，结合熵值分析法得到的静态权和预警指标值的动态发展趋势，构建了农地生态安全预警的惩罚型变权模型并进行了实证研究。惩罚型变权评价模型更符合农地生态安全预警的动态性要求，评价结果更接近实际。1982-2012年间，新疆生产建设兵团农地的生态安全呈现出先上升后下降的趋势，但总体上位于轻警区间。通过预测，在未来的5年间，其安全状况会较现状年有一定程度退化，有向中警区间延伸的趋势。%The paper introduced the variable weight theory to forewarning of farmland ecological security , and constructed farmland ecological security forewarning punishment type variable weight model based on the static pow -er and the forewarning index value of the dynamic development trend by dominating entropy analysis method .The variable weight value of the warning index was higher than its basic weight ; however, its corresponding comprehen-sive evaluation value was found to be lower than that from the basic weight ;The ecological safety of the study area has increased at first and then shows a downward trend during the period of 1982-2012, but on the whole in the light warning interval; Through the forecast, in the next 5 years, the security situation would be more degraded to some extent and has extended to the interval trend .
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