Since the implementation of the policy of reform and opening-upto the outside world, great achievements have been made in grain production in North China. So more and more grains are sent from the North to the South where grain production has been neglected. However, the North is suffering from bad shortage of water resources and the project of transferring water from the South where there is plenty of water resources available to the North has to be prepared for. For the purpose of rational utilization of water resources, it is proposed that grain production in the North should be reduced and that in the South be expanded, while certain amount of grains should be imported. By these ways can the crisis of water shortage in the North be alleviated. Other suggestions are also set forward for the promotion of productivity of water resources and sustainable development of agriculture and rural economy of China.%改革开放以来，南方经济突飞猛进，放松了粮食生产；北方注重水利设施建设，有力地促进了粮食生产，从而使历史形成的“南粮北调”局面逐步地呈现出“北粮南运”的格局。值此北方水资源严重短缺，以及“南水北调”工程即将启动之际，本文从水资源合理利用的角度，辩析“南水北调”与“北粮南运”的得与失，提出“北压南扩”的粮食布局，以及进口必要数量的粮食以缓解北方水危机等的水资源生产力战略贮备意见。并着重强调多种途径，增进水资源生产潜力对我国农业与农村经济可持续发展的基础作用。
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