对石河子垦区1959～2008年50 a的气象资料分析表明,气候倾向为有利于棉花生产的发展趋势.分阶段研究发现:1959～1980年期间平均气温、≥10℃积温和ET0与棉花种植比例的关系不密切,1981～2008年期间关系密切；总体上气候变化影响棉花种植主要是通过气候生产潜力来实现.分析棉花受灾比例的变化规律,在1959～1980年间呈上升趋势,绝对数值较小；在1981～2008年间呈下降趋势,绝对数值偏大；气象灾害对棉花种植比例和单产的影响,在1981～2008年间均比1959～1980年间严重.此外,1981～2008年间发生重大气象灾害的时间间隔明显缩短,对今后棉花生产造成了很大的潜在威胁.%The meteorological data of Shihezi area during 1959 ~ 2008 was analyzed. The results showed that the climate turned a favorable trend for cotton production. The research period was divided into two stages, which showed that there was no close relationship between annual average temperature, accumulated temperature ≥ 10℃, ET0 and planting proportion of cotton during 1959 ~ 1980, but they had a close relationship during 1981 ~ 2008. The overall impacts of climate change on the planting proportion of cotton were achieved mainly though the influence of climatic potential productivity on cotton yield. The variation of the proportion of cotton afflicted had an upward trend during 1959 ~ 1980, while the absolute value was small; whereas the trend during 1981 ~ 2008 was downward, while the absolute value was large. The impacts of meteorological disasters on planting proportion of cotton were more severe in the second phase than in the first. The time interval of meteorological disasters was significantly shorter during 1981 ~ 2008, which has caused a potential threat to cotton production in the future.
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