宝鸡市用水结构及用水量预测分析

摘要

以1996-2011年宝鸡市用水量为基础，对其用水结构、用水趋势进行分析，并利用回归分析，得到用水的驱动力因素：人口、第一产业增加值、工业增加值、农民人均纯收入和城镇居民可支配收入5个因子。以该驱动力因子为输入层，以农业用水、工业用水、生活用水为输出层建立人工神经网络BP模型，对宝鸡市2012-2020年各行业用水量进行预测，结果表明：至2020年，农业用水、工业用水和生活用水分别为4．43亿m3、0．57亿m3、1．31亿m3，预测效果良好，精度可靠。%Based on 1996-201 1 water consumptions in Baoji City,the structure and trend of water comsuption has been analyzed in this paper,obtained five influencing factors through regression analysis,namely population,the first in-dustrial added value,industrial added value,farmer’s net income per capita and net income of urban resident per capi-ta .Taking the influencing factors as input layer,the agriculture,industrial and domestic water consumption as output layer,established the BP model and forecasted the water consumption of each industry from 2012 to 2020 in Baoji City. The results shown that:The water consumption of agriculture,industry and domestic life were 4.43,0.57 and 1 .31 hundred million m3,respectively.The effect of prediction was good with reliable accuracy.