新疆阿勒泰地区1963-2012年最大冻土深度的时空分布及其对气温变化的响应

摘要

Based on the Maximum Frozen Soil Depth and annual mean temperature and Extreme low temperature across seven meteorological stations in Altay region from 1963-2012,using linear regression,Mann-Kendall mutation detection,Hurst R/S analysis method,the temporal evolution and spatial distribution of maximum depth and tempera-tures of frozen soil were analyzed .The results show:the mean-square deviation and coefficient of variation of maximum appears in Jimunai;the maximum depth have declined by 0 .574 cm·a-1;The annual maximum frozen depth almost al-ways occurs in February and March;Maximum Frozen Soil Depth appear an abrupt decrease in 1986-1987s in Altay re-gion;the deepest of annual Extreme and maximum of average and average of maximum depth appears in Qinghe;The Maximum Frozen Soil Depth and are negatively correlated with annual mean temperature and Extreme low temperature and the correlation coefficients are -0 .508 and -0 .293 .%利用阿勒泰地区1963-2012年7个气象站的最大冻土深度、平均气温，极端最低气温资料，采用回归分析、相关性检验、Mann-Kendall突变检测、Hurst提出的R/S分析等方法，对阿勒泰地区最大冻土深度的时间演变、空间分布及与气温的关系进行了分析。结果表明：吉木乃站的均方差和变差系数最大；阿勒泰地区最大冻土深度以0．574 cm·a-1的速度显著减少；年最大冻土深度几乎出现在2-3月；阿勒泰地区的最大冻土深度的突变时间是在1986-1987年，发生了下降趋势的突变，福海和富蕴站没有发生突变；阿勒泰地区年极端最大值、最大值的平均值、平均最大值均出现在青河站；年最大冻土深度与平均气温和极端最低气温呈显著负相关，其相关系数分别为-0．508和-0．293。