低频天气图方法在辽宁夏季延伸期强降水预报中的应用

摘要

A new forecasting method, the low-frequency weather map (LFSC), is applied in Liaoning precipitation forecast from 10 to 20 days. By using LFSC, the active characteristics of the low-frequency cyclones and anticyclones are analyzed. Based on their active characteristics, the precipitation processes are forecasted. The forecast results are good in Liaoning region from June to August 2011 and its forecasting period of validity is about 10-20 days. The LFSC method can be applied to predict the precipitation process in the extended-range forecast from 10 to 20 days.%　　基于低频天气图预报方法,分析夏季(6—8月)影响辽宁省强降水过程关键地区低频天气系统(低频气旋和低频反气旋)的活动特征,并根据这些活动特征预报强降水过程,在2011年夏季用该方法进行辽宁地区强降水过程预报表明,预报效果较好,且预报时效为10~20d,可以在月内强降水过程预报中应用。