七个海洋潮汐模式在浙江海域的准确度评估

摘要

利用浙江近岸33个潮位站的8个主要分潮(M2,S2,N2,K2,K1,O 1,P1和Q1)的调和常数和潮高,对7个全球/区域潮汐模式(CSR4.0,FES2012,HAMTIDE11a,TPXO7.2,TPXO8-atlas,TPXO-CSI2016和NAO99Jb)的准确度进行了评估.以M2分潮的潮高均方根误差大小为标准,评估结果显示FES2012模式在浙江近海的准确度相对较高,33个潮位站平均的M2分潮潮高均方根误差为22.12 cm.各模式在杭州湾和瓯江4个测站的准确度普遍较低,多模式平均的M2分潮潮高均方根误差都超过70 cm.若不考虑上述4个测站,TPXO8-atlas模式的准确度最高,29个潮位站平均的M2分潮潮高均方根误差为16.38 cm.综合来看,FES2012和TPXO8-atlas在浙江近海的准确度较高,可根据实际研究区域和分潮加以选择.%Harmonic constants of 8 tidal constituents M2 ,S2 ,N2 ,K2 ,K1 ,O 1 ,P1 ,and Q1 derived from the observations from 33 tide-gauge stations along the coastline of Zhejiang are used to evaluate the skill of 7 global/regional ocean tide models CSR4.0,FES2012,HAMTIDE11a,TPXO7.2,TPXO8-atlas,TPXO-CSI2016,and NAO99Jb.With the root-mean-square error (σ)of M2 amplitude taken as a criteria,compar-ison between the observations and model results reveals that the FES2012 are most accurate among the 7 models,and the averagedσ of M2 simulated by FES2012 at 33 stations is 22.12 cm.Large errors are found at the 4 stations in Huangzhou Bay and Oujiang River,and the averagedσ of the 7 models at these stations all exceed 70 cm.If the 4 stations are excluded from comparison,the TPXO8-atlas has the best skill,and the averagedσ of the rest 29 stations is 16.38 cm.In general,the FES2012 and the TPXO8-atlas provide better results in the coastal area of Zhejiang.