跑道侵入风险评价的改进网络层次分析法研究

摘要

跑道侵入事件已成为威胁航空安全运行的重要因素之一.基于系统工程的思想, 从机场、空中交通管制、航空公司三个方面分析造成跑道侵入事件发生的主要因素及其关联关系, 并建立风险评价指标体系;利用三角模糊数对传统的网络层次分析法进行改进, 基于此建立跑道侵入风险评价研究模型;通过实例分析, 找出对跑道侵入风险产生影响的主要因素.结果表明:所用方法可行有效, 能够反映出风险因素之间的相互关系, 降低了主观判断对指标权重的影响程度, 有助于制定预防跑道侵入事件发生的有效措施;管制员工作负荷、管制员情景意识丧失、飞行员操作偏差/疏忽为产生跑道侵入的主要风险因素.%Runway incursions have become an important factor that threaten the safe operation of aviation. Based on the thoughts of system engineering, main factors causing runway incursion incidents and their associated relationships are analyzed and a runway incursion risk assessment index system is established from three aspects of airports, air traffic control, and airlines; The traditional analytic network process is improved by triangular fuzzy numbers, and a research model for runway incursion risk assessment is established based on this; Through the analysis of examples, the main factors affecting the runway incursion risk are obtained. The results show that the method is feasible and effective, which can reflect the relationship between risk factors and reduce the influence of subjective judgment on the index weight, and help develop effective measures to prevent runway incursions. The workload of controller, lost situation awareness and deviation operation/negligence of pilot are main risk factors during the production of runway incursion.