风电场风速分布模型研究综述

摘要

风速分布模型是用于风电场资源评估、风电场规划与建设以及发电系统可靠性评估等方面不可缺少的数学基础。本文主要综述了反映中长周期的风速分布特性的数学模型，如伽马分布、对数正态分布、瑞利分布、威布尔分布和Burr分布；并以威布尔分布为例，介绍了常用的各种参数估计方法。文中分析比较了各种方法的优缺点，并对今后风电场风速分布模型的研究进行了展望。%The models of wind speed distribution are the important mathematic bases applying to wind resource as-sessment, planning and building of wind farms, and also for the reliability evaluation of power systems. Firstly, this paper reviews some models of medium-and-long-term wind speed distribution, such as Gamma distribution, Log-normal distribution, Rayleigh distribution, Weibull distribution and Burr distribution. Secondly, on the base of the Weibull distribution, kinds of parameter estimated methods are introduced. Thirdly, the characteristics of various distribution models and estimated algorithms are compared respectively. At the end of this paper the prospects of this research area are put forward.