基于通量守恒原理的水质监测非统计不确定性研究

摘要

There was non-statistical uncertainty in dynamic environmental monitoring for water quality. The Caojialu basin in Beijing was selected as a case study to monitoring river flow and water quality before and after confluence of two rivers. Based on mass conservation principle, the occasional error limit of the water quality was analyzed. And its mean value after the removal of the coarse value was used to characterize the non-statistical uncertainty in the monitoring process. The results can be used to support the water management.%水环境动态监测过程中,结果存在非统计不确定性.以北京市密云水库曹家路小流域安达木河部分汇流河段为研究对象,结合水质和流量数据,分析了单次监测中水质存在的偶然误差下限值,去除其粗大值,以其均值表征动态监测过程中的非统计不确定性.由于研究的汇流河段尺度小,水流经过时间短,迁移转化过程可以忽略,建立的基于通量守恒原理的非统计不确定性分析方法有助于水环境管理.