潜在震源区震级上限不确定性研究

摘要

The upper limit earthquake magnitude (Mu) means the maximum magnitude of earthquakes occurred in the potential seismic source zone. The ex-pected probability of the earthquake with the magnitude exceeding the upper limit tends to zero. Using error and logic-tree analysis, this paper analyzed in detail and finally presented the uncertainty of upper limit magnitude given in va-rious ways for potential seismic sources of various types.%潜在震源区的震级上限(Mu)是指在该潜在震源区内可能发生的最大地震的震级,预期未来发生超过该震级地震的概率趋于0.本文运用误差分析及逻辑树等方法,并结合发震模型的数值模拟得到的大震合成目录等结果,系统分析并最终得到了不同途径给出的不同类型潜在震源区震级上限的不确定性.该结果可直接应用于包括地震区划在内的工程地震以及活动断裂危险性评价等工作中.