雄安新区是新近设立的国家级新区,如何在新区建设中坚持生态优先、绿色发展,是即将开展的新区规划必须考虑的问题.绿色生态规划离不开对规划区生态本底的清楚认识,离不开对规划结果的准确预判.因此基于2004、2015年的Landsat影像,采用遥感信息反演技术和RSEI遥感生态指数,评估了该区近11年来的地表不透水面、植被和水体三大覆盖类型的变化,并预测新区建设的生态效应及其对热环境的影响.结果表明,雄安新区近11年地表不透水面、植被和水体的面积虽互有增减,但变化强度都小于5％,总体开发强度不大,本底生态质量较好,稳中略升.定量分析表明,在该区的三大地表覆盖类型中,不透水面对区域生态和地表温度的影响最大.根据所获得的关系模型预测,新区的人口规划和面积方案将对区域生态质量和热环境产生影响,如果按新增不透水面面积占新区面积25％的比例来预测,它将使生态质量下降10％,地表温度上升1.1℃;但如果将不透水面比例控制在20％,则新区的生态质量反而上升3.6％,地表温度下降0.3℃.%The Xiong'an New Area is a recently established state-level new area in Baoding,Hebei province,China.Green construction and development are the most important issues to be considered and must be given priority by area planners during forthcoming construction of the new area.Green ecological planning cannot be implemented without a clear understanding of an area's ecological status and an accurate prediction of an area's ecological status responding to forthcoming regional planning.Therefore,using Landsat images of 2004 and 2015,feature inversion and extraction techniques,and the remote sensing-based ecological index (RSEI),this study investigated changes in three main land cover types (impervious surface,vegetation,and water) in the Xiong'an New Area over the last 11 years from 2004 to 2015 and predicted the ecological and thermal effects responding to the upcoming regional construction on the new area.The results show that the areas of impervious surface,vegetation,and water covers have changed over the 11-year study period,but the change intensity was less than 5％.In addition,the ecological status was stable during the study period as the RSEI increased only slightly from 0.629 in 2004 to 0.639 in 2015.Therefore,the overall development intensity was relatively low,and the area's current ecological quality is good.Quantitative analysis indicates that the area of impervious surface has the strongest influence on both ecological quality and land surface temperature among the three main land cover types of the area.The area's ecological responses to upcoming regional planning were predicted using regression relationship models of RSEI and land surface temperature with the three main land cover types.The prediction,based on the known goal of population and area development,revealed that the increase of population to 2.5 million with a 25％ of impervious surface cover in the new area would have noteworthy effects on regional ecological conditions,potentially decreasing the area's RSEI by 10 ％ and increasing land surface temperature by 1.1 ℃.Alternatively,if the proportion of impervious surface could be controlled within 20％,the area's RSEI would increase by 3.6％,and land surface temperature would decrease by 0.3 ℃.
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