气候变化对甘肃省农业气候资源和主要作物栽培格局的影响

摘要

基于甘肃省80个地面气象观测站1961-2014年气象观测资料和玉米、春小麦、冬小麦、马铃薯的区划指标,分1961-1986(时段Ⅰ)和1987-2014年(时段Ⅱ)2个不同时段,分析气候变化对甘肃省农业气候资源变化特征和主要粮食作物潜在栽培格局的影响.研究发现:时段Ⅱ较时段Ⅰ平均气温、负积温、≥0℃积温和≥10℃积温分别增加0.83℃、113.9℃·d、290℃·d和180℃·d,降水量气候倾向率为-34-16mm/10a,整体表现为减少趋势.时段Ⅱ较时段Ⅰ春小麦不适宜种植区面积显著增加约9％,最适宜、适宜、次适宜种植区面积分别减少1.4％、4.1％和4.8％,其中以河西走廊和陇中黄土高原变化最为显著.冬小麦适宜和次适宜种植区面积分别增加6％和3.4％,最适宜、可种植和不适宜种植区面积分别减少0.4％、3.5％和5.7％,其中以陇中地区变化最为显著.玉米最适宜和可种植区面积分别增加13％和7％.适宜、次适宜和不适宜种植区面积分别减少11％、2％和7％,其中以河西灌区变化最为显著.马铃薯最适宜和适宜种植区面积分别减少3.8％和0.7％,次适宜和可种植区面积分别增加3.5％和1.3％,其中以陇中黄土高原变化最为显著.最后提出适应气候变化调整农业结构和栽培格局的对策建议.%The impacts of climate change on agro climatic resources characteristics were assessed for Gansu Province in Northwest China.The analysis used data from 80 meteorological stations and the regionalization index for maize (Zea mays),spring wheat (Triticumaestivum),winter wheat (Triticumaestivum) and potato (Solanum tuberosum) for the period from 1961 to 2014.The analysis was conducted using two sub periods,1961-1986 and 1987-2014.Results indicated that the average temperature,the negative accumulated temperature,≥ 0℃ accumulated temperature,and ≥ 10℃ accumulated temperature in the first period increased by 0.83℃ · d,113.9℃ · d,290℃ · d and 180℃ · d,respectively,compared with the second period.The Climatic tendency of rainfall was-34-16mm/10a with a decreasing trend.The resulting cropping patters were mapped using a geographic information system (GIS),Comparing the first period,the unsuitable areas of spring wheat planting increased by 9％,but the optimum,suitable and less suitable areas of spring wheat planting in the second period decreased by 1.4％,4.1％ and 4.8％,respectively,with an even stronger decrease,in the Hexi corridor and the middle regions of the Loess Plateau of Gansu Province.While the suitable and less suitable areas of winter wheat planting increased by 6％ and 3.4％ in the second period,respectively;however the optimum,cultivable and unsuitable areas were reduced by 0.4％,3.5％ and 5.7％;with an even stronger reduction in the middle regions of the loess plateau of Gansu Province.The optimum and cultivable areas for maize increased by 13％ and 7％,in the second periods,respectively;but the suitable,less suitable and unsuitable areas were reduced by 11％,2％ and 7％,with an even stronger reduction observed for the Hexi corridor of Gansu Province.The optimum and suitable areas of potato decreased by 3.8％ and 0.7％in the second periods,respectively,but the less suitable and cultivable areas increased by 3.5％ and 1.3％;with an even larger increase in the middle regions of the Loess Plateau of Gansu Province.The countermeasures of adjusting agricultural structure and crop patterns to adapt to climate changes.