基于熵权模糊物元模型的我国省域森林生态安全研究

摘要

近年来随着经济社会的快速发展,森林资源锐减和生态环境恶化等问题日益威胁到人们的生产生活,在建设生态文明的背景下研究我国省域森林生态安全状况,是关系国计民生和可持续发展的重要议题.在整理现有生态安全研究体系的基础上,独创性地提出森林生态安全压力-承压模型,应用SPSS、EXCEL等软件,通过主成分分析、熵权法和物元分析等手段对2014年我国31个省级行政单位的森林生态安全水平进行实证研究.结果表明:在压力方面,19个省级行政单位承受了较大森林生态安全压力;在承压方面,12个省级行政单位的承压能力较强;在综合评价方面,14个省级行政单位的森林生态安全水平较高.在深入探讨分析评价结果的同时,为提高我国森林生态安全水平提出对策和建议.%Recently,with the rapid development of the economy and society,the decline of forest resources and deterioration of ecological environments have threatened human productivity and lifestyles.In the context of ecological progress,research on the condition of provincial forest ecological security in China has become a fundamental issue,since it plays a vital role in the sustainable development and national economy,affecting the livelihood of people.After analyzing the existing ecological security systems,the pressure-pressure bearing capacity model was proposed.Using software,such as SPSS and EXCEL,the forest ecological security standards of 31 provinces in China were empirically analyzed and evaluated using the principal component analysis,entropy method,and matter-element analysis based on the data from 2014.Results showed that in the pressure evaluation,19 provinces (61.29％) are under high forest ecological security pressure,which means that most provinces face a high ecological security risk,including Hebei,Chongqing,Hubei,Shanxi,and Xinjiang.In contrast,Tibet,Shanghai,Hainan,Gansu and Heilongjiang face lower pressure.Evaluation of pressure-bearing capacity revealed that 12 provinces (38.71％) are under better bearing conditions,which means that the average pressure-bearing capacity of China is relatively low.Fujian,Yunnan,Jiangxi,Hainan and Zhejiang have the highest pressure-bearing capacities,whereas Qinghai,Ningxia,Xinjiang,Gansu and Tianjin have the lowest.In a comprehensive evaluation of forest ecological security,14 provinces (45.16％) showed high forest ecological security,mostly the southern provinces,including Tibet,Hainan,Fujian,Yunnan and Jiangxi,which are in relatively good condition.However,Ningxia,Qinghai,Xinjiang,Hebei and Shanxi indicated low forest ecological security.Therefore,measures such as strengthening the protection of natural forests,exploring alternatives to wood resources,and establishing a forest ecological security early warning system,should be taken.In addition,measures to improve ecological security should be implemented in consideration of the specific needs of each province.