基于马尔可夫过程的备件库存动态特性分析

摘要

The dynamic characteristics of spare inventory under nonstationary demand were researched. The Markova state transition equation of spare consume distribution function was formulated and the function derivations of expectation and variance of consumed spares with respect to time were obtained. On the base of above mentioned analysis result, the methods of calculating the expectation, variance and distribution function of consumed spares were given at arbitrary time point. Curves of the expected consumed spares (E(t)) and the expected back orders (EBO(t)) vs. time were plotted by numerical integral, influences of the demand rate and the turnaround time rate of the spares on E(t), EBO(t) were analyzed.%研究了非稳态需求下的备件库存动态变化特性,建立了备件消耗量分布函数的马尔可夫状态转移方程,得到消耗量均值和方差关于时间的导函数.在此基础上给出了计算任意时间点备件消耗量均值和方差的流程及消耗量分布函数的计算方法.运用数值积分的方法绘制出消耗量及延期交货量变化曲线并分析备件需求率和周转速率对消耗量和延期交货量的影响.