蜀柏毒蛾在我国的潜在地理分布及主导气候因子阈值

摘要

采用基于最大熵算法的生态位模型MaxEnt 和地理信息系统软件ArcGis，对蜀柏毒蛾在我国的潜在地理分布进行了分析及预测，确定了影响该虫分布的主导气候因子，即最暖季度降水量、温度季节性变化标准差、平均日较差、最冷月最低温度和最冷季度降水量。利用蜀柏毒蛾地理分布概率与主导气候因子间的关系给出了各主导气候因子的阈值。%In this study , the niche model MaxEnt based on maximum entropy algorithm , and the geographic information system software ArcGis were applied to analyze and predict the potential geographical distribution of Parocneria orientia in China, and five dominant climatic factors affecting the distribution of this insect pest were confirmed , namely precipitation in the warmest quarter , standard deviation of temperature seasonal change , mean diurnal range , minimum temperature in the coldest month , and precipitati-on in the coldest quarter .The threshold values of five dominant climatic factors were given according to the relationships between the geographical distribution probability of Parocneria orientia and various dominant climatic factors .