长春市九台区土地利用系统动力学特征及结构优化

摘要

Jiutai district of Changchun city was taken as the research area. At first,the principle and method of system dy-namics were used to clarify the feedback relationships among various factors of land use system;the flow diagram of land use sys-tem in Jiutai district was drawn based on Vensim PLE software platform,and the system dynamics model was established. Then, the land use change trends in Jiutai district from 2013 to 2020 were simulated under 3 circumstances based on the setting of differ-ent population,economic development rate and food yield levels. Finally,the optimized solution of land use structure in Jiutai dis-trict in 2020 was got through the dynamic characteristics analysis and benefit accounting. The results show that:in the optimum land use structure of Jiutai district in the year 2020,the area of agricultural land,construction land and unused land will be 290161.61,28802. 99 and 8569. 73 hm2,respectively. In 2020,the supply-demand difference of construction land and cultivated land will be 9993.14 and 67253 hm2 ,respectively. This research suggests that:excavating and utilizing the rural resi-dential land consolidation potential is an important approach to solve the contradiction between supply and demand of construction land in Jiutai district;enhancing grain yield per unit area by the construction of high-standard farmland is an important means to decrease the pressure of cultivated land requirement;under the circumstance of keeping local ecological balance,Jiutai district can properly increase the area of construction land to get more comprehensive benefits.%以长春市九台区为研究区域,先运用系统动力学原理和方法,厘清土地利用系统要素之间的反馈关系,基于Vensim PLE软件平台,绘制九台区土地利用系统流图,构建系统动力学模型;再基于不同人口、经济发展速度和粮食单产水平的设定,开展3种情景下2013年到2020年间九台区土地利用变化仿真趋势模拟;最后,通过动态特征分析和效益核算,确定了九台区2020年土地利用结构优化方案及今后一段时间的土地利用方向,为研究吉林省中部县域土地利用提供参考.结果显示:到2020年九台区最优土地利用结构中,农用地面积290161.61 hm2,建设用地面积28802.99 hm2,未利用地面积8569.73 hm2;2020年建设用地供需差9993.14 hm2,耕地供需差67253 hm2.研究表明,通过城镇化建设和城乡建设用地增减挂钩项目,挖掘并利用农村居民点整理潜力是解决九台区建设用地供需矛盾的重要途径;依托高标准农田建设提升粮食单产是缓解耕地需求压力的重要手段;在保持当地的生态平衡的情况下,九台区可以通过适当增加建设用地提高土地综合效益.