首页> 外文学位 >The humanitarian impact of UN arms embargoes: Can arms embargoes end or limit violent conflict?
【24h】

The humanitarian impact of UN arms embargoes: Can arms embargoes end or limit violent conflict?

机译:联合国武器禁运的人道主义影响:武器禁运可以结束还是限制暴力冲突?

获取原文
获取原文并翻译 | 示例

摘要

Confronted with bloody civil conflict, the UN, if it acts, often defaults to imposing an arms embargo. Yet while arms embargoes have been increasingly imposed since the end of the Cold War, there remains significant disagreement about the impact and effectiveness of arms embargoes for ending, or at the very least limiting, violent conflict.;This study analyzes the impact of UN arms embargoes on internal conflict. It seeks to understand what role UN arms embargoes can play in ending or limiting violent conflict. It does so by both closely examining the theory and assumptions of how arms embargoes ostensibly work and analyzing with statistics and through case studies the impact of past and current arms embargoes on civil conflict.;Arms embargoes may have little effect, because the Security Council underestimates the challenges of influencing combatants and relies on a flawed theory of the impact and utility of arms embargoes. Impartial arms embargoes have rarely succeeded in preventing a sufficient re-supply of arms to all participants to sustain the embargoed conflict. Thus, the military conflict drags on interminably. The hope then is the arms embargo may motivate the combatants to agree to a peace settlement. But without a significant change in the military dynamics, there will seldom be a change in the status quo political calculations of the combatants and thus little motivation to negotiate meaningfully and compromise. The solution---absent other assertive action---may be the imposition of a partial embargo. While a partial embargo cannot stop all supplies to the embargoed force or forces, it will have an impact on the relative supply of arms and could thus help change the relative balance of forces. This in turn would change the political calculations of the combatants, and may help promote a settlement.;Statistical analysis suggests that impartial arms embargoes do prolong conflict. Case studies of four UN arms embargoes, Bosnia, Liberia, Sierra Leone, and Somalia demonstrates that impartial arms embargoes do not impede the flow of arms sufficiently to end the war. In fact, in some instances the arms embargo may do more harm than good. More importantly, in the three cases where the conflict has ended (Bosnia, Liberia, and Sierra Leone) it was the imposition of a formal or de facto partial that helped bring an end to those wars.;The dissertation does not assert that imposing a partial arms embargo is a solution to all civil conflict. But the reason the Security Council continues to implement arms embargoes inappropriately is because it often fails to understand the possible and real impact of arms embargoes. Therefore arms embargoes are poorly implemented and rarely part of a clear strategy to restore peace and stability to the embargoed country or region. Arms embargoes can be an important and powerful tool for the Security Council for dealing with a humanitarian crisis, but only if they are an element of a comprehensive strategy that realistically appraises the difficulty of promoting peace. If implemented poorly or without careful analysis, arms embargoes may often do more harm than good.
机译:面对流血的内战,联合国如果采取行动,通常会默认实行武器禁运。然而,尽管自冷战结束以来对武器禁运的实施日趋严格,但对于结束或至少是有限的暴力冲突对武器禁运的影响和有效性仍然存在重大分歧。;本研究分析了联合国武器的影响禁运内部冲突。它试图了解联合国武器禁运在结束或限制暴力冲突中可以发挥什么作用。它是通过严密研究武器禁运表面上如何工作的理论和假设,并通过统计分析和通过案例研究来分析过去和现在的武器禁运对内战的影响。武器禁运的影响很小,因为安全理事会低估了影响战斗人员的挑战,并依靠关于武器禁运的影响和效用的错误理论。公正的武器禁运很少能阻止所有参与者重新供应足够的武器以维持禁运的冲突。因此,军事冲突无休止地持续下去。当时的希望是,武器禁运可能会激发战斗人员达成和平解决方案。但是,在军事动力方面没有重大变化的情况下,战斗人员的现状政治计算几乎不会改变,因此,进行有意义的谈判和妥协的动力很小。解决方案-缺乏其他果断行动-可能是实行部分禁运。虽然部分禁运不能停止向禁运部队提供所有供应,但它将对武器的相对供应产生影响,因此可能有助于改变部队的相对平衡。反过来,这将改变战斗人员的政治思维方式,并可能有助于达成解决方案。统计分析表明,公正的武器禁运确实会延长冲突。对波斯尼亚,利比里亚,塞拉利昂和索马里四个联合国武器禁运的案例研究表明,公正的武器禁运不会充分阻止武器流通以结束战争。实际上,在某些情况下,武器禁运弊大于利。更重要的是,在冲突已经结束的三种情况下(波斯尼亚,利比里亚和塞拉利昂),实行正式或事实上的局部性有助于结束这些战争。部分武器禁运是解决所有内乱的一种方法。但是,安全理事会继续不适当地执行武器禁运的原因是,它常常无法理解武器禁运的可能和实际影响。因此,武器禁运执行不力,很少成为恢复被禁国家或地区和平与稳定的一项明确战略的一部分。武器禁运可以是安全理事会处理人道主义危机的重要而有力的工具,但前提是它们是切实评估促进和平的全面战略的一项要素。如果实施不当或没有仔细分析,武器禁运往往弊大于利。

著录项

  • 作者

    Hogendoorn, Ernst Jan.;

  • 作者单位

    Princeton University.;

  • 授予单位 Princeton University.;
  • 学科 International law.
  • 学位 Ph.D.
  • 年度 2008
  • 页码 382 p.
  • 总页数 382
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类
  • 关键词

相似文献

  • 外文文献
  • 中文文献
  • 专利
获取原文

客服邮箱:kefu@zhangqiaokeyan.com

京公网安备:11010802029741号 ICP备案号:京ICP备15016152号-6 六维联合信息科技 (北京) 有限公司©版权所有
  • 客服微信

  • 服务号