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Essays on the economics of voting, violence, and job search.

机译:关于投票,暴力和求职经济学的论文。

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摘要

In the first chapter of this dissertation, the causal effect of the Obama for America Get-out-the-Vote program is estimated using a quasi-experimental design and data from North Carolina. The Obama for America campaign produced a continuous support score for each voter that corresponded to the probability the voter would support Obama. Anybody scored above 65 was considered a 'supporter'. Having a support score just over 65 meant that a voter received on average 0.058 more contacts during the campaign. Corresponding to the increase in contacts, sporadic voters with support scores just over 65 were 1.9% more likely to vote early. The estimated treatment on the treated effect is that each Obama for America contact increased the probability of turnout by 24% among sporadic voters during the early voting period.;In the second chapter, which is co-authored with Professor Edward Miguel, we study the brutal 1991-2002 Sierra Leone civil war using nationally representative household data on conflict experiences, postwar economic outcomes, local politics and collective action. Individuals whose households directly experienced more intense war violence are robustly more likely to attend community meetings, more likely to join local political and community groups, and more likely to vote. Tests using prewar controls and alternative samples suggestion selection into victimization is unlikely to be driving the results. More speculatively, the findings could help partially explain the rapid postwar political and economic recoveries observed in Sierra Leone and after several other recent African civil wars.;The third chapter investigates how youth with parents in the rural areas affected by the South African drought of 2003 responded to this negative shock. Youth with parents in urban areas are used as a comparison group in order to distinguish the effect of the drought from other events that may have been happening simultaneously. Youth with rural parents significantly increase the amount they are looking for work during these months, and this is not due to changes in schooling or employment. Unfortunately severe attrition prevents precise estimates of the return to the observed increase in job search.
机译:在本论文的第一章中,使用准实验设计和北卡罗来纳州的数据估算了奥巴马的美国脱欧投票计划的因果关系。美国奥巴马竞选活动为每个选民产生了持续的支持得分,这与该选民支持奥巴马的可能性相对应。得分高于65的任何人都被视为“支持者”。支持得分略高于65,意味着选民在竞选期间平均获得了0.058多个联系。与接触的增加相对应,支持得分略高于65的零星选民提前投票的可能性提高了1.9%。估计的治疗效果是,在投票初期,散布在选民中的每个奥巴马与美国的接触使投票率增加了24%。;在第二章中,与爱德华·米格尔(Edward Miguel)教授合着,我们研究了1991-2002年塞拉利昂残酷内战,使用了具有全国代表性的有关冲突经历,战后经济成果,地方政治和集体行动的家庭数据。家庭直接遭受更激烈的战争暴力的个人更有可能参加社区会议,更有可能加入当地政治和社区团体,并且更有投票权。使用战前控制和替代样本进行的测试表明,选择受害者作为受害者不太可能推动结果。更具投机性的是,这些发现可以部分解释塞拉利昂以及最近几场非洲内战之后观察到的战后政治和经济的迅速复苏。第三章调查了2003年南非干旱对农村地区有父母的青年的影响应对了这种负面冲击。为了将干旱的影响与可能同时发生的其他事件区分开来,将有父母在城市地区的年轻人用作比较组。有农村父母的年轻人在这几个月中大大增加了他们寻找工作的数量,但这并不是由于学校或工作的变化。不幸的是,严重的人员流失妨碍了对求职中所观察到的增加回报的精确估计。

著录项

  • 作者

    Bellows, John Lewis.;

  • 作者单位

    University of California, Berkeley.;

  • 授予单位 University of California, Berkeley.;
  • 学科 Economics General.;Economics Theory.
  • 学位 Ph.D.
  • 年度 2009
  • 页码 124 p.
  • 总页数 124
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类
  • 关键词

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