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Volatility trading: Hedge funds and the search for alpha (new challenges to the efficient markets hypothesis).

机译:波动率交易:对冲基金和寻找alpha(有效市场假设的新挑战)。

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摘要

This thesis examines the pricing of volatility on organized U.S. options exchanges from October 31, 2005 through November 1, 2007. The research is motivated in part by the rapid growth of hedge funds that trade volatility and in part by the growing importance that the financial markets place on the VIX as a measure of investor risk aversion.;The first half of the study speaks to the efficiency with which the market prices index volatility (as derivable from index options) relative to the individual volatilities of the index's components (as derivable from equity options). This has important implications for a particular type of volatility trading, known as dispersion trading. The study required the development of a novel extension of the Markowitz variance equation and, in the process, provides an alternative way to measure systematic and unsystematic risk. Consistent with research claims, it is shown that U.S. options markets tend to overprice index volatility and to underprice index component volatilities. Even allowing for reasonable transaction costs, potentially profitable trading opportunities arise far more frequently than one would expect if markets were perfectly efficient. Further, cluster analysis reveals that the frequency of profitable opportunities is positively correlated with both the level of index volatility and the volatility of index volatility.;The second half of the study compares the implied volatilities of individual stocks derived in two different ways. The first is the now traditional method of simply extracting the implied volatility directly from an option's price (option-implied volatility or OIV). This measure is, of course, model dependent. The second method involves deriving the implied volatility of a stock from the stock's historical beta and from the implied volatility of an index of which the stock is a part (beta-implied volatility or BIV). It is shown that BIV is, on average, slightly higher than OIV, that the two measures are highly correlated, that BIV is more volatile than OIV, and that the ratio of BIV to OIV is mean reverting for nearly all stocks studied. These results suggest that profitable pairs trading of a stock's BIV against its OIV might be possible.
机译:本文研究了2005年10月31日至2007年11月1日美国有组织的期权交易所的波动率定价。该研究部分是由于对冲基金的快速增长所致,该对冲基金具有波动性,而金融市场的重要性日益提高。在VIX上作为衡量投资者规避风险的指标。研究的前半部分谈到了市场价格指数波动率(可从指数期权中得出)相对于指数成分的个别波动率(可从中得出)的效率。股票期权)。这对特定类型的波动率交易(称为分散交易)具有重要意义。该研究需要开发Markowitz方差方程的新颖扩展,并在此过程中提供了一种测量系统性和非系统性风险的替代方法。与研究主张相一致的是,表明美国期权市场倾向于高估指数波动率和低估指数成分波动率。即使考虑到合理的交易成本,潜在的有利可图的交易机会的出现频率也要比市场完全有效的预期要频繁得多。此外,聚类分析表明,获利机会的发生频率与指数波动水平和指数波动率呈正相关。研究的第二部分比较了以两种不同方式得出的单个股票的隐含波动率。第一种是现在的传统方法,直接从期权价格中直接提取隐含波动率(期权隐含波动率或OIV)。当然,此度量取决于模型。第二种方法涉及从股票的历史Beta和股票作为其一部分的指数的隐含波动率得出股票的隐含波动率(Beta隐含波动率或BIV)。结果表明,平均而言,BIV比OIV略高,这两个指标高度相关,BIV的波动性大于OIV,并且BIV与OIV的比值几乎是所有研究股票的均值回复。这些结果表明,将股票的BIV与其OIV进行盈利交易是可能的。

著录项

  • 作者

    Marshall, Cara Marie.;

  • 作者单位

    Fordham University.;

  • 授予单位 Fordham University.;
  • 学科 Economics Finance.;Business Administration Banking.
  • 学位 Ph.D.
  • 年度 2009
  • 页码 155 p.
  • 总页数 155
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类 财政、金融;金融、银行;
  • 关键词

  • 入库时间 2022-08-17 11:38:18

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