首页> 外文学位 >Robust-efficient fitting of mixed linear models: Theory, simulations, actuarial extensions, and examples.
【24h】

Robust-efficient fitting of mixed linear models: Theory, simulations, actuarial extensions, and examples.

机译:混合线性模型的鲁棒高效拟合:理论,仿真,精算扩展和示例。

获取原文
获取原文并翻译 | 示例

摘要

In many areas of application mixed linear models serve as a popular tool for analyzing highly complex data sets. For inference about fixed effects and variance components, likelihood-based methods such as (restricted) maximum likelihood estimators, (RE)ML, are commonly pursued. However, it is well-known that these fully efficient estimators are extremely sensitive to small deviations from hypothesized normality of random components as well as to other violations of distributional assumptions. In this dissertation, we propose a new class of robust-efficient estimators for inference in mixed linear models. The new three-step estimation procedure provides truncated generalized least squares and variance components' estimators with hard-rejection weights adaptively computed from the data. Theoretical efficiency and robustness properties of the new estimators are established and then examined---via simulations---under a number of contaminating scenarios for small- and moderate-samples. Their trade-offs between efficiency and robustness are explored in comparison to well-established robust estimators, including robust (restricted) maximum likelihood, bounded influence estimators, Fellner's method, and constrained translated biweight S-estimators (CTBS). The detection of outlying data is discussed in detail. Widely studied real-data sets from chemistry and real estate serve to illustrate efficiency of detection rules and usefulness of new adaptively truncated likelihood (ATL) methods in practice. Further, we extend these procedures to some popular actuarial models. In particular, classical (regression) credibility models that can be embedded within the framework of mixed linear models are studied. In actuarial practice, it is well-known that standard and fully efficient estimators cannot be directly applied for skewed or long-tailed insurance data. Therefore, a second major objective of this dissertation is to develop robust and efficient methods for credibility when heavy-tailed claims are approximately log-location-scale distributed. To accomplish that, we first show how to express additive credibility models such as Buhlmann-Straub and Hachemeister as mixed linear models with symmetric or asymmetric errors. Then, we adjust adaptively truncated likelihood methods and compute highly robust credibility estimates for the ordinary but heavy-tailed claims part. Finally, we treat the identified excess claims separately and find robust-efficient credibility premiums. Monte Carlo simulations and case studies from property and casualty insurance and health care insurance are used to illustrate performance and functional capabilities of the new robust credibility estimators.
机译:在许多应用领域中,混合线性模型是分析高度复杂数据集的流行工具。为了推断固定效应和方差成分,通常采用基于似然的方法,例如(受限)最大似然估计器(RE)ML。但是,众所周知,这些完全有效的估计器对随机分量假设的正态性的微小偏差以及其他违反分布假设的情况极为敏感。本文针对混合线性模型提出了一种新的鲁棒有效估计量。新的三步估算程序为截断的广义最小二乘和方差分量的估算器提供了根据数据自适应计算的硬拒绝权重。建立了新估计量的理论效率和鲁棒性,然后在大量中小样本的污染情况下(通过模拟)对其进行了检验。与行之有效的鲁棒估计量相比,他们在效率和鲁棒性之间进行了权衡,包括鲁棒(受限)最大似然,有限影响估计量,Fellner方法和约束平移双权S估计量(CTBS)。将详细讨论外围数据的检测。在化学和房地产领域广泛研究的真实数据集可用来说明检测规则的效率以及新的自适应截短似然(ATL)方法在实践中的实用性。此外,我们将这些程序扩展到一些流行的精算模型。特别是,研究了可嵌入混合线性模型框架内的经典(回归)可信度模型。在精算实践中,众所周知,标准且完全有效的估算器不能直接用于偏斜或长尾保险数据。因此,本论文的第二个主要目的是开发一种可靠且健壮的方法,用于在重尾索赔近似于对数定位范围的情况下进行可信度评估。为此,我们首先展示如何将加性可信度模型(例如Buhlmann-Straub和Hachemeister)表达为具有对称或非对称误差的混合线性模型。然后,我们调整自适应截断似然法,并为普通但沉重的索赔部分计算高度可靠的可信度估计。最后,我们将识别出的超额索赔分开对待,并找到可靠有效的信誉溢价。来自财产和伤亡保险以及医疗保险的蒙特卡罗模拟和案例研究用于说明新型稳健可信度估算器的性能和功能。

著录项

  • 作者

    Dornheim, Harald J.;

  • 作者单位

    The University of Wisconsin - Milwaukee.;

  • 授予单位 The University of Wisconsin - Milwaukee.;
  • 学科 Applied Mathematics.;Statistics.
  • 学位 Ph.D.
  • 年度 2009
  • 页码 158 p.
  • 总页数 158
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类
  • 关键词

相似文献

  • 外文文献
  • 中文文献
  • 专利
获取原文

客服邮箱:kefu@zhangqiaokeyan.com

京公网安备:11010802029741号 ICP备案号:京ICP备15016152号-6 六维联合信息科技 (北京) 有限公司©版权所有
  • 客服微信

  • 服务号