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Healthcare Decision Making and Stochastic Model Predictive Control: Output-Feedback, Optimality, and Duality

机译:医疗保健决策制定和随机模型预测控制:输出反馈,最优性和对偶性

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摘要

Model Predictive Control has become a prevailing technique in practice by virtue of its natural inclusion of constraint enforcement in sub-optimal feedback design through repeated solution of finite-horizon, open-loop control problems. However, many approaches are lacking in proper accommodation of output feedback using imperfect measurements, as is normally required in practice. The conventional workaround for this disconnect between control theory and practice is the use of certainty equivalent control laws, which subsume best available state estimates in place of the system state in order to salvage methods available for state-feedback Model Predictive Control.;This dissertation explores Stochastic Model Predictive Control in the general, nonlinear output-feedback setting. Starting the receding horizon development from Stochastic Optimal Control, we attain inherent accommodation of imperfect measurement data through propagation of the conditional state density, the information state. This setup further results in the control signals being of dual, probing nature: the control balances the typically antagonistic requirements of regulation and exploration. However, these conflicting tasks inherent to Stochastic Optimal Control also embody the associated computational intractability. While properties such as optimal probing and numerical performance bounds on the infinite time-horizon require solution of Stochastic Optimal Control problems, obtaining these solutions is typically not possible in practice due to the exorbitant computational demands.;We suggest two methods for tractable Stochastic Model Predictive Control. Firstly, we propose approximation of the information state update by a Particle Filter, which may be merged naturally with scenario optimization to generate control laws. While computationally tractable, this method does not maintain duality without additional measures. Alternatively, the nonlinear output-feedback problem can be approximated---or even cast---as a Partially Observable Markov Decision Process, a special class of systems for which Stochastic Optimal Control is numerically tractable for reasonable problem size, enabling dual optimal control with provable infinite-horizon properties.;Throughout this dissertation, we examine two classes of examples from healthcare: individualized appointment scheduling, a problem not requiring duality; medical treatment decision making, where dual control decisions are often required to balance optimally when to order diagnostic tests and when to apply medical intervention.
机译:由于模型预测控制通过反复解决有限水平,开环控制问题而自然地将约束强制纳入次优反馈设计中,因此已成为实践中的一种流行技术。然而,如实践中通常所要求的,许多方法缺乏使用不完美的测量来适当地适应输出反馈的方法。控制理论与实践之间这种脱节的常规解决方法是使用确定性等效控制律,该律采用最佳可用状态估计代替系统状态,以挽救状态反馈模型预测控制可用的方法。一般非线性输出反馈设置中的随机模型预测控制。从随机最优控制开始后退的发展,我们通过传播条件状态密度,信息状态来获得不完美测量数据的固有适应性。这种设置进一步导致控制信号具有双重探测性质:控制平衡了调节和探索的典型对抗要求。但是,随机最优控制固有的这些冲突任务也体现了相关的计算难点。虽然无限时间水平上的最佳探测和数值性能边界等属性需要解决随机最优控制问题,但由于计算需求过大,在实践中通常无法获得这些解决方案;;我们建议两种可预测的随机模型预测方法控制。首先,我们提出了通过粒子滤波器对信息状态更新的近似,可以将其与场景优化自然合并以生成控制律。尽管该方法在计算上易于处理,但如果没有其他措施,就无法保持对偶性。或者,可以将非线性输出反馈问题近似(甚至强制转换)为部分可观察的马尔可夫决策过程,这是一类特殊的系统,其随机最优控制在数值上可解决合理的问题大小,从而实现双重最优控制在整个论文中,我们研究了医疗保健中的两类示例:个性化约会安排,该问题不需要对偶性;医疗决策中,通常需要双重控制决策来平衡何时订购诊断测试和何时进行医疗干预。

著录项

  • 作者

    Sehr, Martin Arno.;

  • 作者单位

    University of California, San Diego.;

  • 授予单位 University of California, San Diego.;
  • 学科 Mechanical engineering.;Health care management.
  • 学位 Ph.D.
  • 年度 2017
  • 页码 169 p.
  • 总页数 169
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类
  • 关键词

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