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Macroeconomic Implications of Changes in the Composition of the Labor Force.

机译:劳动力构成变化的宏观经济影响。

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The United States has experienced several sectoral shifts over the last hundred years, a shift from agriculture to manufacturing, manufacturing to services, and within these sectors the shift from the home sector to the market sector. These shifts have been attributed in the literature to different sectoral productivity growth rates. It is likely that these sectoral re-allocations have far reaching impacts on economic indicators we measure. My dissertation concerns the effect of the difference in productivity growth rates across sectors on the market to home hours ratio, sectoral employment trends for men and women, and the consumption to output ratio as measured in the National Income and Product Accounts.;The first chapter of my dissertation focuses broadly on the ten percentage point increase in the consumption to output ratio since the 1950's. There has been much speculation from the popular press that this increase implies that Americans are consuming beyond their means and that this path of consumption is unsustainable. Economists who have researched this trend can account for part of the increase through an increase in the depreciation rate and decline in the population growth rate. Both imply that a necessary condition for an increasing consumption to output ratio is the economy must be in transition to a new balanced growth path. I find that balanced growth is an unnecessary condition, and the important aspect of the economy to model to capture this trend is the home sector.;The home sector is not included in the National Income and Product Accounts, but it produces consumption goods that have many close substitutes with the market sector. After 1950, the growth rate of market total factor productivity was greater than the growth rate of home total factor productivity and hours of work shifted from the home sector to the market sector. Unmeasured home goods were replaced by measured market substitutes and since home consumption and production is not included in NIPA, the consumption to output ratio increased. The increase in the consumption to output ratio is therefore a natural outcome of structural transformation and can occur when the economy is on an aggregate balanced growth path.;Most of the increase in the market hours to home hours ratio post-1950 can be attributed to the increase in female labor supply, and a majority of the increase in the consumption to output ratio is a result of the increase in market services. Not all market goods are close substitutes with home produced goods. Home produced services such as childcare, care for elderly parents, and meal preparation have substitutes that can be purchased only in the market services sector, such as daycare services, nursing home services and restaurant meals. It has also been documented that post-1950 the manufacturing sector grew at a faster rate than the market services sector, which grew at a faster rate than the home services sector. Taking into account all of these facts, the second chapter of my dissertation asks if differences in total factor productivity growth rates in the home, market services, and goods sectors can generate the shift in employment shares that occurred during this time period for both men and women, while remaining consistent with an increase in the consumption to output ratio during the transformation process.;As sectors grow at different rates, employment shifts to the more productive sector if the goods are close substitutes and away from the more productive sector if the goods are complements. Male employment moves from the manufacturing sector to the market services sector and female employment moves out of the home sector to market services. Working women replace home production with market purchased services. Since home production and consumption are not included in the national accounts, a shift from home to market consumption increases the NIPA consumption to output ratio, consistent with the previous study.;The first two chapters created theoretical models that could account for aggregate trends of interest, but did not explore the micro-foundations in great detail. The third chapter delves into the Panel Study of Income Dynamics and the American Time Use Survey to explore how households respond to female labor supply on both the extensive and intensive margins. The goal is to determine the extent to which expenditure and time use patterns differ between married households in which both the male and female are employed and married households in which only the male is employed.;The constraint in this analysis is the ability to overcome selection issues with the available data. Person fixed-effects will be used in the regression analysis performed with the PSID data to mitigate the selection issues. The same strategy cannot be implored with the ATUS because it is a repeated cross-section. Therefore, we control for as many variables as possible that may affect expenditures (eg. age, education, number of children, etc.). The results are consistent with the story proposed in the first two chapters. Women spend less time taking care of their children, less time cleaning the house, and less time preparing meals for their family. Households in which the women are employed also purchase more daycare services and meals away from the home.
机译:在过去的一百年中,美国经历了几次部门转移,从农业转移到制造业,从制造业转移到服务业,在这些部门中,从本国部门转移到市场部门。这些变化在文献中被归因于不同部门的生产率增长率。这些部门的重新分配可能会对我们衡量的经济指标产生深远的影响。我的论文关注的是部门生产率的差异对市场与家庭工作时间之比,男女部门就业趋势以及国民收入和产品账户中消费与产出之比的影响。我的论文主要集中于1950年代以来的消费与产出比提高了10个百分点。大众媒体一直在猜测,这种增长意味着美国人的消费超出了他们的能力,而且这种消费途径是不可持续的。研究这种趋势的经济学家可以通过折旧率的提高和人口增长率的下降来解释增长的部分原因。两者都暗示增加消费与产出之比的必要条件是经济必须过渡到新的平衡增长道路。我发现均衡增长是不必要的条件,而用来捕捉这种趋势的经济模型的重要方面是房屋部门。房屋部门不包括在国民收入和产品账户中,但其生产的消费品具有市场部门有许多紧密的替代品。 1950年之后,市场全要素生产率的增长率大于房屋全要素生产率的增长率,工作时间从房屋部门转移到市场部门。未计量的家庭用品被已计量的市场替代品取代,并且由于房屋消费和生产不包括在NIPA中,因此消费与产出之比增加了。因此,消费与产出之比的增加是结构转型的自然结果,并且可能在经济处于总体平衡的增长路径上时发生。; 1950年后市场时间与家庭时间之比的增加大部分可归因于女性劳动力供应的增加,消费与产出之比的增加大部分是市场服务增加的结果。并非所有的市场商品都可以与本地生产的商品紧密替代。家庭生产的服务(例如托儿服务,照顾老年父母和准备饭菜)具有替代品,只能在市场服务部门购买,例如日托服务,养老院服务和餐厅用餐。也有文献记载,1950年以后制造业的增长速度快于市场服务业的增长速度,而市场服务业的增长速度快于家庭服务业的增长速度。考虑到所有这些事实,我的论文的第二章提出,家庭,市场服务和商品部门的全要素生产率增长率的差异是否会导致这段时期内男性和女性的就业份额发生变化。妇女,同时在转型过程中与消费产出比的增长保持一致。;随着部门以不同的速度增长,如果商品是紧密的替代品,则就业转移到生产性更高的部门,而如果商品是替代性的,则就业转移到生产性更高的部门是补品。男性就业从制造业转移到市场服务部门,女性就业从家庭部门转移到市场服务。职业妇女用市场购买的服务代替家庭生产。由于国民生产总值中不包括房屋生产和消费,因此从房屋消费向市场消费的转变增加了NIPA消费与产出之比,与先前的研究一致。前两章创建了可以解释总体兴趣趋势的理论模型,但并未详细探讨微观基础。第三章深入研究了《收入动态》小组研究和《美国时间使用调查》,以探讨家庭如何在广泛的和集约的利润率上对女性劳动力供应做出反应。目的是确定在雇用男女的已婚家庭和仅雇用男性的已婚家庭之间支出和时间使用方式的差异程度;该分析的局限性是克服选择的能力。可用数据有问题。人员固定效应将用于对PSID数据执行的回归分析中,以减轻选择问题。 ATUS不能采用相同的策略,因为它是重复的横截面。因此,我们尽可能控制可能影响支出的变量(例如年龄,学历),孩子人数等)。结果与前两章中提出的故事一致。妇女花在照顾孩子上的时间更少,花在打扫房屋上的时间更少,花在为家人准备饭菜上的时间更少。雇用妇女的家庭还在家中购买了更多的日托服务和饭菜。

著录项

  • 作者

    Forrester, Kellie.;

  • 作者单位

    University of California, Santa Barbara.;

  • 授予单位 University of California, Santa Barbara.;
  • 学科 Economics.;Labor economics.
  • 学位 Ph.D.
  • 年度 2014
  • 页码 160 p.
  • 总页数 160
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类
  • 关键词

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