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Forward premium puzzle.

机译:转发高级拼图。

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Financial liberalizations in recent decades have prepared the way for the rapidly increasing number of studies related to the investigations of foreign exchange market efficiency in developing economies via testing for the uncovered interest parity (UIP) condition. Chapter 1 provides a survey on this recent literature. Specifically, it attempts to answer the following question: are the economies of developing countries different from those of developed countries in the context of the UIP condition?;Examining cross-country data, Bansal and Dahlquist (2000) found that the puzzling correlation between the exchange rate changes and the interest rate differentials of two countries appears less puzzling among developing countries than among developed countries. Several economists come up with new types of theoretical models that can explain the above new findings [e.g. Alvarez and Atkeson (2005), Baccheta and Wincoop (2005, 2009)]. According to these models, when inflation is low, the exchange rate adjustment tends to be slow because adjustment is costly. This is why we observe the UIP puzzle in many developed countries where inflation rates are low. In Chapter 2, we cast doubt on these claims of the models by empirically examining the cross-country data. In essence, we argue that these models appear to solve the "nominal puzzle" but cannot solve the "real puzzle" of the UIP relation. After taking account of the relative PPP effect, we observe the same degree of the real UIP puzzle in both groups of countries.;The increasing international equity flows relative to bank loans or bonds constitutes a motivation to investigate a relationship of equity returns and exchange rate change. Under no-arbitrage condition, the expected returns on home equity market should equal those on the foreign equity market. This relation is known as the Uncovered Equity Party (UEP). In Chapter 3, we propose an alternative method, called the UEP Ratio and UIP Ratio, to test the UEP relation and UIP relation, respectively. Examining time-series data for ten countries with developed financial markets, we find that UIP is less puzzling than we thought. Furthermore, unlike the literature, we find that UIP holds better than UEP. In addition, the UEP regression is a biased predictor of the deviation in UEP.
机译:最近几十年的金融自由化为通过测试未发现的利率平价(UIP)条件而对发展中经济体外汇市场效率进行调查的研究数量迅速增加铺平了道路。第1章提供了有关最新文献的调查。具体而言,它试图回答以下问题:在UIP条件下,发展中国家的经济与发达国家的经济是否不同?; Bansal和Dahlquist(2000)研究了跨国数据,发现两者之间令人困惑的相关性。两国之间的汇率变动和利率差异似乎比发达国家之间的困惑少。几位经济学家提出了可以解释上述新发现的新型理论模型[例如, Alvarez和Atkeson(2005),Baccheta和Wincoop(2005,2009)]。根据这些模型,当通货膨胀率较低时,汇率调整趋于缓慢,因为调整成本很高。这就是为什么我们在许多通货膨胀率较低的发达国家中观察到UIP难题的原因。在第二章中,我们通过实证研究了跨国数据,对模型的这些主张提出了怀疑。从本质上讲,我们认为这些模型似乎可以解决“名义难题”,但不能解决UIP关系的“真正难题”。在考虑了相对购买力平价效应之后,我们在两组国家中观察到了相同程度的真实UIP难题。;相对于银行贷款或债券而言,国际股票流量的增加构成了研究股票收益率与汇率之间关系的动机。更改。在无套利的情况下,房屋股票市场的预期收益应等于外国股票市场的预期收益。这种关系称为“未发现权益方”(UEP)。在第3章中,我们提出了另一种方法,称为UEP比率和UIP比率,分别测试UEP关系和UIP关系。通过检查十个金融市场发达的国家的时间序列数据,我们发现UIP的困扰比我们想象的要少。此外,与文献不同,我们发现UIP比UEP更好。另外,UEP回归是UEP偏差的偏向预测因子。

著录项

  • 作者

    Tanamee, Danai.;

  • 作者单位

    University of Kansas.;

  • 授予单位 University of Kansas.;
  • 学科 Economics General.
  • 学位 Ph.D.
  • 年度 2014
  • 页码 81 p.
  • 总页数 81
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类
  • 关键词

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