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Using Gaussian Processes for the Calibration and Exploration of Complex Computer Models.

机译:使用高斯过程进行复杂计算机模型的校准和探索。

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摘要

Cutting edge research problems require the use of complicated and computationally expensive computer models. I will present a practical overview of the design and analysis of computer experiments in high energy nuclear and astro phsyics. The aim of these experiments is to infer credible ranges for certain fundamental parameters of the underlying physical processes through the analysis of model output and experimental data.;To be truly useful computer models must be calibrated against experimental data. Gaining an understanding of the response of expensive models across the full range of inputs can be a slow and painful process. Gaussian Process emulators can be an efficient and informative surrogate for expensive computer models and prove to be an ideal mechanism for exploring the response of these models to variations in their inputs.;A sensitivity analysis can be performed on these model emulators to characterize and quantify the relationship between model input parameters and predicted observable properties. The result of this analysis provides the user with information about which parameters are most important and most likely to affect the prediction of a given observable. Sensitivity analysis allow us to identify what model parameters can be most efficiently constrained by the given observational data set.;In this thesis I describe a range of techniques for the calibration and exploration of the complex and expensive computer models so common in modern physics research. These statistical methods are illustrated with examples drawn from the fields of high energy nuclear physics and galaxy formation.
机译:前沿的研究问题要求使用复杂且计算昂贵的计算机模型。我将提供有关高能核物理和天体物理的计算机实验设计和分析的实用概述。这些实验的目的是通过对模型输出和实验数据的分析来推断基础物理过程的某些基本参数的可信范围。要成为真正有用的计算机模型,必须对照实验数据进行校准。了解昂贵的模型在所有输入范围内的响应可能是一个缓慢而痛苦的过程。高斯过程仿真器可以成为昂贵的计算机模型的有效且信息丰富的替代产品,并被证明是探索这些模型对其输入变化的响应的理想机制。可以对这些模型仿真器进行敏感性分析,以表征和量化模型输入参数与预测的可观察特性之间的关系。该分析的结果为用户提供了有关哪些参数最重要且最有可能影响给定可观察值的预测的信息。灵敏度分析使我们能够确定哪些模型参数可以最有效地受到给定的观测数据集的约束。;在这篇论文中,我描述了一系列用于校准和探索在现代物理学研究中如此普遍的复杂而昂贵的计算机模型的技术。这些统计方法以高能核物理和星系形成领域为例进行了说明。

著录项

  • 作者

    Coleman-Smith, C.E.;

  • 作者单位

    Duke University.;

  • 授予单位 Duke University.;
  • 学科 Physics Theory.;Statistics.;Physics Radiation.
  • 学位 Ph.D.
  • 年度 2014
  • 页码 199 p.
  • 总页数 199
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类
  • 关键词

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