Using a Stages of Change Approach to Explore Opportunities for Increasing Bicycle Commuting.

摘要

Given the potential benefits of bicycling to the environment, the economy, and public health, many U.S. cities have set ambitious goals for increasing the bicycle share of commute trips. The Transtheoretical Model of Behavior Change, which seeks to describe how positive and permanent change can be fostered in individuals, may shed light on how cities can most effectively increase bicycle commuting. While this framework is often applied to health-related behavior, it may also have relevance in the field of travel behavior. I use the model's "stages of change" framework to explore the potential for increased bicycle commuting to the UC Davis campus in Davis, California. My analysis uses data from the 2012-13 UC Davis Campus Travel Survey, an annual online survey that is randomly administered to students and employees at UC Davis. Based on their responses to questions about current commute mode and contemplation of bicycle commuting, respondents are divided into five stages of change: Pre-contemplation, Contemplation, Preparation, Action, and Maintenance. I construct a Bayesian multilevel ordinal logistic regression model to understand how differences in socio-demographic characteristics, travel attributes, and travel attitudes between individuals explain their membership in different stages of change. In addition, I use this model to explore the potential of various intervention strategies to move individuals through the stages of change towards becoming regular bicycle commuters. The results suggest that important differences in these five groups may necessitate a range of targeted bicycle policies and programs.