Assessing the Value of Improved Load Forecasting and Coordinated Economic Dispatch in Central America

摘要

The global increase in renewable penetration within electricity grids leads to increased variability and uncertainty, which must be met through available ramping reserves. These reserves can be derived from several sources such as electro-chemical or mechanical storage, fast-ramping generators, demand response, or through purchases from neighboring grids. Reserve requirements can also be reduced through improved load and non-dispatchable generator forecasting.;Central America, a region leading the low-carbon energy transition, must contend with managing the increased uncertainty and variability coming from some of these sources. Further, consistent demand growth in the region has led to increasing capacity requirements. However, there is limited literature regarding system adequacy in the region using traditional planning metrics for capacity and flexibility. Further, there are opportunities for significant research contributions regarding how improved forecasting and cooperation could ease the low-carbon energy transition as well as reduce overall system costs, particularly for countries with high electricity prices such as Nicaragua and Costa Rica.;This dissertation evaluated the capacity adequacy and flexibility of three countries in Central America: Nicaragua, Costa Rica, and Panama. This dissertation focused on two methods of managing and improving the flexibility of an electricity grid. First, improved load forecasting methods for Nicaragua were constructed and compared to the existing dispatch forecast. A methodology was then constructed for measuring the value of improved forecasting for any country. In order to do so, Unit Commitment and Economic Dispatch simulations were conducted in order to evaluate how dispatch differs from imperfect and perfect forecasts. This dissertation also sought to study the impact of increased regional cooperation by quantifying the value of combining the dispatch scheduling processes of Nicaragua, Costa Rica, and Panama into a single centralized dispatch.;Overall, this dissertation provides a methodology for evaluating grid flexibility strategies (specifically improved forecasting methods and increased cooperation) and considers Nicaragua as a case study to examine how improved forecasting and cooperation impacts electricity grids with high renewable penetration.