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Global liquidity spillovers to capital flow surges.

机译:全球流动性溢出到资本流动激增。

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摘要

As capital flows to both advanced and emerging market economies have steadily increased in the past three decades followed by increase in their volatility, understanding the drivers of capital flows and extreme episodes of capital flow has become more important. Highly synchronized extreme episodes of capital flows emphasize the importance of common factors such as global liquidity and global risk. These two variables are usually examined as independent variables, although there are conditions in which high global liquidity can occur concurrently with high global risk and there are also periods where low global liquidity and low global risk intersects.;This dissertation examines the effect of global liquidity and risk on capital flows to emerging economies and whether the relationship changes during easy global liquidity conditions. Using data from 42 emerging economies during 1987 -- 2010, I find that both global liquidity and global risk are important drivers of capital flows, however, the effect of global liquidity easing is smaller during high global risk condition. This result is found to be qualitatively robust using different measurements of global liquidity, surges and reversals. During simultaneous surges or boom periods, the magnitude of surges is significantly higher. Boom are also found to significantly affect the magnitude of portfolio and other inflows.;Specifically on capital surges, I find that surge magnitudes have increased more in recent years and also more synchronized than reversals. Average gross inflows during a simultaneous boom or bust were higher compared to the normal period on average with higher standard deviations. I also examined surge during easy global liquidity conditions and find that the number of surges identified during these periods of easy global conditions are higher and have higher magnitude than under normal liquidity conditions. I find that global factors are the most robust determinant of the likelihood and magnitude of surges, especially global liquidity and global risk, compared to domestic variables. Consequently, the number and magnitude of foreign investor driven surges are found to be higher than other types of surges.
机译:在过去的三十年中,随着流入发达市场和新兴市场经济体的资本稳步增长,随后其波动性增加,了解资本流动的驱动因素和极端的资本流动事件变得更加重要。资本流动的高度同步极端事件强调了诸如全球流动性和全球风险等共同因素的重要性。尽管在某些情况下高全球流动性可能与高全球风险同时发生,并且在某些时期全球低流动性和低全球风险相交,但通常将这两个变量作为独立变量进行研究。流入新兴经济体的资本的风险,以及在宽松的全球流动性条件下这种关系是否会发生变化。使用1987年至2010年期间42个新兴经济体的数据,我发现全球流动性和全球风险都是资本流动的重要驱动力,但是,在高全球风险条件下,全球流动性宽松的影响较小。使用全球流动性,波动和逆转的不同度量,发现该结果在质量上是可靠的。在同时出现的波动或繁荣时期,波动的幅度明显更高。繁荣也被发现会显着影响投资组合和其他流入的规模。特别是在资本激增方面,我发现近年来激增的幅度增加得更多,并且比逆转更同步。同时繁荣或萧条期间的平均总流入量比正常时期平均水平更高,标准差也更高。我还研究了宽松的全球流动性条件下的激增,发现在宽松的全球条件下的这些时期内识别出的激增次数比正常流动性条件下的更高且幅度更大。我发现,与国内变量相比,全球因素是激增的可能性和幅度的最强有力的决定因素,尤其是全球流动性和全球风险。因此,发现外国投资者驱动的激增的数量和幅度要高于其他类型的激增。

著录项

  • 作者

    Crystallin, Masyita.;

  • 作者单位

    The Claremont Graduate University.;

  • 授予单位 The Claremont Graduate University.;
  • 学科 Economics.;Finance.
  • 学位 Ph.D.
  • 年度 2015
  • 页码 165 p.
  • 总页数 165
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类
  • 关键词

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