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THE DAILY BEHAVIOR OF FOREIGN EXCHANGE RATE CHANGES: A DISTRIBUTIONAL STUDY.

机译:外汇汇率的每日行为:一项分布研究。

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摘要

For more than two decades now, researchers have been attempting to characterize the behavior of certain speculative market prices. Typically, these studies have been concerned with whether price changes are independent over time (consistent with market prices fully reflecting information) or may be characterized as following a certain specified frequency distribution. Knowledge of both is important to the efficient construction of portfolio positions. Knowing the latter is a prerequisite to specifying exposure to portfolio risk. Knowing the former is necessary to determining return opportunities. Of course, knowledge of both is important to our understanding of how speculative markets operate.;Several hypotheses about the distributional properties of foreign exchange rate changes (specifically, 1nX(,t) = 1n(P(,t)/P(,t-1)) where P(,t) is the exchange rate in period t) are investigated for each currency. Specific evidence is offered on whether the distributions approximate normal, nonnormal stable Paretian, or subordinated stochastic processes. The distributional properties of daily, weekly (e.g., Monday to Monday) and day of the week (e.g., Monday to Tuesday) exchange rate changes are investigated. Comparisons are made of the distributions across days of the week and across currencies.;With the exception of the German mark and the Swedish krona where the results are somewhat inclusive, the normal and stable Paretian distributions do not provide a good description of daily exchange rate changes. Except for the British pound, goodness of fit tests tend to support the hypothesis that weekly exchange rate changes are adequately described by nonnormal stable Paretian distributions; however, this hypothesis is not supported by tests of stability. The Swedish krona is the only currency where the stable Paretian hypothesis is supported by tests of stability. These results are contrary to findings reported in the literature.;The hypothesis that the five weekly exchange rate series (i.e., Monday to Monday, Tuesday to Tuesday, etc.) come from the same distribution is not rejected. When the distributions for days of the week are compared, the hypothesis that the underlying distributions are equal is rejected. This last result supports a theory that different returns for different days of the week may be a result of different information flows. This evidence for the existence of trading day effects raises questions about efficiency in the foreign exchange market and the assumption of equally spaced trading periods in previous studies.;The purpose of this dissertation is to investigate the distributional characteristics of exchange rate changes for four major and four minor foreign currencies. Twelve currency markets are analyzed. These include spot and three month forward markets for the exchange of dollars for four major trading currencies (the British pound, the German mark, the Japanese yen, and the Swiss franc) and spot markets for four less actively traded currencies (the Australian dollar, the Malaysian ringgit, the Spanish peseta, and the Swedish krona). The data base consists of daily observations from January 2, 1975 through June 29, 1979.;The question of the most appropriate model for describing exchange rate changes remains unresolved; however, results from some of the tests in this dissertation suggest that the investigation of mixtures of distributions is a fruitful area for future research.
机译:二十多年来,研究人员一直在尝试刻画某些投机性市场价格的行为。通常,这些研究关注的是价格变化是否随时间变化是独立的(与完全反映信息的市场价格一致)还是可以表征为遵循特定的特定频率分布。两者的知识对于有效构建投资组合头寸很重要。了解后者是确定投资组合风险敞口的前提。了解前者对于确定退货机会很有必要。当然,两者的知识对于我们了解投机市场的运作方式非常重要。;关于汇率变化的分布特性的几个假设(具体来说,1nX(,t)= 1n(P(,t)/ P(,t -1))其中,P(,t)是周期t)中每种货币的汇率。提供了有关分布是否接近正态,非正态稳定的Paretian或从属随机过程的具体证据。研究每日,每周(例如星期一至星期一)和一周中一天(例如星期一至星期二)汇率变化的分布特性。对一周中各天和不同货币之间的分布进行了比较;;除德国马克和瑞典克朗以外,其结果在一定程度上具有包容性,正常和稳定的帕累特分布不能很好地描述每日汇率变化。除英镑外,拟合优度检验还支持以下假设:每周汇率变化可以用非正态稳定的Paretian分布充分描述。但是,这种假设不受稳定性检验的支持。瑞典克朗是唯一通过稳定检验支持稳定的Paretian假设的货币。这些结果与文献报道的发现相反。拒绝拒绝五个每周汇率系列(即星期一至星期一,星期二至星期二等)来自相同分布的假设。当比较一周中各天的分布时,基本分布相等的假设被拒绝。最后的结果支持一种理论,即一周中不同天的不同回报可能是不同信息流的结果。有关交易日效应存在的证据提出了有关外汇市场效率和先前研究中均等交易期假设的问题。本论文的目的是研究四个主要货币市场汇率变化的分布特征。四种次要外币。分析了十二个货币市场。其中包括用于将四种主要交易货币(英镑,德国马克,日元和瑞士法郎)兑换成美元的现货和三个月远期市场,以及用于交易较少的四种货币(澳元,马来西亚林吉特,西班牙比塞塔和瑞典克朗)。该数据库包括从1975年1月2日到1979年6月29日的每日观测数据。描述汇率变化的最合适模型的问题仍未解决。然而,本文一些测试的结果表明,对分布分布的混合物的研究是未来研究的一个富有成果的领域。

著录项

  • 作者

    SUNG, SAM KYUNG.;

  • 作者单位

    University of Houston.;

  • 授予单位 University of Houston.;
  • 学科 Business Administration General.
  • 学位 Ph.D.
  • 年度 1980
  • 页码 167 p.
  • 总页数 167
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类
  • 关键词

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